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I think we are wildly underestimating the long run purchasing power of bitcoins. Everyone is using comps like global M2 money supply or gold, but bitcoin inherently enjoys a much higher marginal propensity to hold it as a cash balance, even at post-hyperbitcoinization equilibrium
Fiat money supplies (M2) are artificially low because everyone wants to hold as little as possible due to "mild" inflation - they’re a too conservative comp for Bitcoin.
Gold has a supply problem, everytime the price goes up, miners can increase their cost and create more. No halvings, no difficulty adjustment. So gold is a too conservative comp as well.
It’s anybody’s guess how valuable bitcoins get.
It’s anybody’s guess how valuable bitcoins get.
My intuition is that even the most bullish predictions are too low. That's why I like the s2f model, it helps me moderate my completely ridiculous future value expectations to something more reasonable.
