Read on Twitter
1/ Real math: people who would have voted for Bernie but will vote for Trump if Dems nominate Biden are
... less than one-half-of-one-percent of general election voters....
Brief thread.... https://twitter.com/SeldenJd/status/1247139431464816640
... less than one-half-of-one-percent of general election voters....
Brief thread.... https://twitter.com/SeldenJd/status/1247139431464816640
2/ For starters, Dems are ~50% of general election voters. So the baseline is 0.5 (50%)
In the Dem primaries so far, Sanders has won 31% of votes. So 0.31 x 0.5 = 0.155 (15.5%)
Only 15% of Sanders voters say they'll vote for Trump, so 0.15 x 0.155 = 0.0235 (2.35%).
But....
In the Dem primaries so far, Sanders has won 31% of votes. So 0.31 x 0.5 = 0.155 (15.5%)
Only 15% of Sanders voters say they'll vote for Trump, so 0.15 x 0.155 = 0.0235 (2.35%).
But....
3/ Exit poll data from Dem primaries find about 12% of Sanders voters won't vote for the Dem nominee in November ... EVEN IF SANDERS IS THE NOMINEE.
Thus, 80% of "Sanders primary voters who will vote Trump if Dems nominate Biden" ... will vote for Trump regardless.
So....
Thus, 80% of "Sanders primary voters who will vote Trump if Dems nominate Biden" ... will vote for Trump regardless.
So....
4/ Only 20% of "Sanders primary voters who will vote Trump if Dems nominate Biden" were ever going to vote for a Dem in November.
So 0.5 x 0.31 x 0.15 x 0.2 = 0.00465 (0.465%) ... less than one-half-of-one-percent.
That 0.465% will NOT decide the 2020 election.
End of Thread
So 0.5 x 0.31 x 0.15 x 0.2 = 0.00465 (0.465%) ... less than one-half-of-one-percent.
That 0.465% will NOT decide the 2020 election.
End of Thread
