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Good morning! The IHME model being relied upon by WH was updated last night and I wanted to spotlight some of the changes that were made. It's important to remember that models are not oracles, and it's necessary to update them as new data comes in. So here is what changed:
Overall US:
-# of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
-Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
-Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
-Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18
-# of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
-Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
-Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
-Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18
Individual States: NY
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/8 instead of 4/9, peak daily deaths 4/9 instead of 4/10
-Total deaths now projected at 15.6k instead of 16.3k
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/30 instead of 5/2
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/8 instead of 4/9, peak daily deaths 4/9 instead of 4/10
-Total deaths now projected at 15.6k instead of 16.3k
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/30 instead of 5/2
State: FL
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/21 instead of 5/3, peak daily deaths on 4/21 instead of 5/4
-Total deaths down by about a hundred at 6.7k instead of 6.8k
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 5/26 instead of 6/7
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/21 instead of 5/3, peak daily deaths on 4/21 instead of 5/4
-Total deaths down by about a hundred at 6.7k instead of 6.8k
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 5/26 instead of 6/7
State: VA
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/20 instead of 5/20. Peak daily deaths on 4/22 instead of 5/20.
-Total deaths down from 3.1k to 1.4k
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/6 instead of 6/22
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/20 instead of 5/20. Peak daily deaths on 4/22 instead of 5/20.
-Total deaths down from 3.1k to 1.4k
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/6 instead of 6/22
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/15 instead of 4/8, peak daily deaths 4/16 instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected to be 584 instead of 2,117
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/2 instead of 4/25
-Peak hospital use is now projected 4/15 instead of 4/8, peak daily deaths 4/16 instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected to be 584 instead of 2,117
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/2 instead of 4/25
State: MI
-Peak hospital use now projected 4/8 instead of 4/9, peak daily deaths 4/9 instead of 4/11
-Total deaths projected to be 2,963 instead of 3,169
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/27
-Peak hospital use now projected 4/8 instead of 4/9, peak daily deaths 4/9 instead of 4/11
-Total deaths projected to be 2,963 instead of 3,169
- Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/23 instead of 4/27
State: TX
-Peak hospital use now projected on 4/19 instead of 5/6, peak daily deaths now projected on 4/20 instead of 5/6
-Total deaths projected to be 2,025 instead of 6,392
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/12 instead of 6/9
-Peak hospital use now projected on 4/19 instead of 5/6, peak daily deaths now projected on 4/20 instead of 5/6
-Total deaths projected to be 2,025 instead of 6,392
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/12 instead of 6/9
State: Illinois
-Peak hospital use now projected on 4/16 instead of 4/20, peak daily deaths projected to be on 4/12 instead of 4/20
-Total deaths essentially the same (around 3.5k)
-Under 20 deaths per day on 4/29 instead of 5/15
-Peak hospital use now projected on 4/16 instead of 4/20, peak daily deaths projected to be on 4/12 instead of 4/20
-Total deaths essentially the same (around 3.5k)
-Under 20 deaths per day on 4/29 instead of 5/15
Also, correction to the NJ projection (was looking at daily death toll and not total deaths)
-Total deaths at 9,690 instead of 2.1k before
-Total deaths at 9,690 instead of 2.1k before
State: GA
-Peak hospital use on 4/20 instead of 4/24, peak daily deaths on 4/21 instead of 4/25
-Total deaths projected to be 3,413 instead of 3,232
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/15 instead of 5/20
-Peak hospital use on 4/20 instead of 4/24, peak daily deaths on 4/21 instead of 4/25
-Total deaths projected to be 3,413 instead of 3,232
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/15 instead of 5/20
State: LA
-Peak hospital use on 4/1 (already passed) instead of 4/9, peak deaths 4/6 (today) instead of 4/10
-Total deaths projected to be 746 instead of 1,834
-Under 20 deaths per day on 4/13 instead of 4/27
-Peak hospital use on 4/1 (already passed) instead of 4/9, peak deaths 4/6 (today) instead of 4/10
-Total deaths projected to be 746 instead of 1,834
-Under 20 deaths per day on 4/13 instead of 4/27
State: CA
-Peak hospital use on 4/14 instead of 4/26, peaks daily deaths on 4/17 instead of 4/26.
-Total deaths projected to be 1,783 instead of 5,068
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/3 instead of 5/31
-Peak hospital use on 4/14 instead of 4/26, peaks daily deaths on 4/17 instead of 4/26.
-Total deaths projected to be 1,783 instead of 5,068
-Under 20 deaths per day on 5/3 instead of 5/31
State: Washington
-Peak hospital use on 4/2 instead of 4/11, peak daily deaths on 4/6 (today) instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected to be on 632 instead of 978
-Peak hospital use on 4/2 instead of 4/11, peak daily deaths on 4/6 (today) instead of 4/9
-Total deaths projected to be on 632 instead of 978
