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After a little hiatus, we are back with our daily update: there are 1.2 million confirmed cases globally. At the current rate of growth, we will probably reach 1.5 million during the week and 2 million next week...
In Europe, the situation seems to be improving, daily net cases have been decreasing since March 28th...
France has been a bit of a mess due to the country finally adding in the statistics from nursing homes. Since this is a reporting issue, we have created an adjusted data set for France...
Thanks to @ManuOrtizOlave @DrNickA @2140btc for their help.
Thanks to @ManuOrtizOlave @DrNickA @2140btc for their help.
Although the drop seen yesterday was most likely due to reporting inconsistency over the weekend, as the decrease in the numbers of daily deaths of the big five in Europe outweighs the continued increase in the numbers for the smaller countries...
However, if we take out the Big Five, the rest of Europe is continuing their upward trajectory of cases...
I mistakenly mentioned a lockdown in Sweden last week, but as deaths there are increasing rapidly, it looks like the Swedish liberal approach may soon abandoned as scientists fear an imminent wave of deaths: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/sweden-girds-for-thousands-of-deaths-amid-laxer-virus-response
Due to France adjusting their numbers, our model cannot represent accurately the amount of active cases expected. But remember, this was never the intention in creating the model, instead it was to observe the curve. I still expect our model to roll over this week...
Yesterday the drop we saw in the number of daily new confirmed cases was likely due to weekend under-reporting...
Adding around 1,000 deaths for the last five consecutive days...
Top public health officials – as well as President Trump – are expecting the situation to worsen this week:
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/5/21208801/coronavirus-fauci-adams-deaths-us-worst-week-yet
Top public health officials – as well as President Trump – are expecting the situation to worsen this week:
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/5/21208801/coronavirus-fauci-adams-deaths-us-worst-week-yet
The current curve has now disconnected from our model. This was expected as the model was constructed based on tight quarantine and lockdown implementation...
As in Sweden, the “do nothing” approach could backfire in Brazil in epic proportions considering the population size of some two hundred million...
@threadreaderapp Compile