- UPDATE April 6th
@RaoulGMI #COVID19

After a little hiatus, we are back with our daily update: there are 1.2 million confirmed cases globally. At the current rate of growth, we will probably reach 1.5 million during the week and 2 million next week...

Total global deaths will cross the 70,000 mark today...

While recoveries should cross the 300,000 mark this week...

There should be more than one million active cases within the next two days...

The virus has now been diagnosed in 183 countries...

There are fourteen countries with more than 10,000 active cases...

In Europe, the situation seems to be improving, daily net cases have been decreasing since March 28th...

This decrease was driven by Spain...

... Italy...

... and Germany...

France has been a bit of a mess due to the country finally adding in the statistics from nursing homes. Since this is a reporting issue, we have created an adjusted data set for France...

Thanks to @ManuOrtizOlave @DrNickA @2140btc for their help.

Spain has now exceeded Italy for the greatest number of confirmed cases...

Europe will reach the grim 50,000 deaths milestone today...

Although the drop seen yesterday was most likely due to reporting inconsistency over the weekend, as the decrease in the numbers of daily deaths of the big five in Europe outweighs the continued increase in the numbers for the smaller countries...

it appears that Europe may have passed the peak for daily deaths...

However, if we take out the Big Five, the rest of Europe is continuing their upward trajectory of cases...

I mistakenly mentioned a lockdown in Sweden last week, but as deaths there are increasing rapidly, it looks like the Swedish liberal approach may soon abandoned as scientists fear an imminent wave of deaths: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/sweden-girds-for-thousands-of-deaths-amid-laxer-virus-response

Due to France adjusting their numbers, our model cannot represent accurately the amount of active cases expected. But remember, this was never the intention in creating the model, instead it was to observe the curve. I still expect our model to roll over this week...

In the US, the total number of confirmed cases is now 336,673...

Yesterday the drop we saw in the number of daily new confirmed cases was likely due to weekend under-reporting...

The US will sadly, most likely cross the 10,000 deaths milestone today...

Adding around 1,000 deaths for the last five consecutive days...

Top public health officials – as well as President Trump – are expecting the situation to worsen this week:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/5/21208801/coronavirus-fauci-adams-deaths-us-worst-week-yet

There are now forty-two states with more than 500 confirmed cases...

... and sixteen states with more than one hundred deaths related to Covid-19...

The US will most likely reach the 500,000 confirmed cases milestone within a week...

There are more than 123,000 confirmed cases in New York...

Nearly half of the total of US deaths is coming from New York for the moment...

The current curve has now disconnected from our model. This was expected as the model was constructed based on tight quarantine and lockdown implementation...

Florida has now reported more than 12,000 confirmed cases...

Louisiana is another worrying state...

But fortunately, deaths remain low...

Brazil and Canada now have more than 10,000 confirmed cases...

As in Sweden, the “do nothing” approach could backfire in Brazil in epic proportions considering the population size of some two hundred million...

@threadreaderapp Compile