Thread - #Turkey stepping up its drone operations in #Libya inflicting some heavy losses on the LNA. Yesterday, a cargo plane was destroyed with a Turkish UAV strike after it landed in #Tarhuna. Eastern authorities claimed the cargo was carrying medical/food supplies to #Tarhuna.
1- In coordination with GNA, #Turkey is launching a 3-stage operation in #Tripoli. 1- cut-off LNA supply lines. 2- degrade LNA capabilities & in west #Libya & force its forces to retreat. 3- Increase Turkish military footprint in western #Libya including bases in Tripoli/Misrata.
2- LNA & external backers are intent on foiling #Turkey's plan i.e. will escalate. They see GNA/Turkey's recent escalation as a ground for a major escalation & use of excessive force on their part - this is tragic for civilians in #Tripoli. #Libya
3- LNA & its external backers' plan will include an attempt to take #Misrata/ #Mitiga out of function completely. As far as the LNA concerned both airports have become bases for major Turkish drone operations & deliveries. #Turkey will have taken measures in anticipation of this.
4- The LNA & some of its external backers are still convinced that even with current levels of Turkish support to the GNA, they are still in a good position to capture #Tripoli. I believe this is due to a number of crude assumptions than on sound calculous/thinking. #Libya
5- With its recent escalation & 3-stage plan, #Turkey is putting the LNA & its external backer's resolve to test. #Turkey's 3-stage plan focuses on securing western #Libya & at a later stage will include plans to expand in the oil/gas-rich southwest.
6- detailed maps of oil/gas infrastructure & installations with a focus on the southwest already on the Turks' tables (have been for a while now). The long-term goal for the Turks here would be a longlasting/undisputed influence in western #Libya with military presence. #Libya