Trends in other countries (WITH MASS TESTING) show slowing at around the three week mark. Anecdotally, I guess we can assume the same. But, we can't.

Because. Testing.

(We sort of have to be broken records, don't we?)

In fairness, it does seem that our testing capacity is finally ramping up. A few weeks (months?) delayed, but it may finally get to the level that allows us to really track trends.

At least in the NCR. (Oops)

Unfortunately, our imperfect and ill-planned initial ordering of the lockdown, means there is a brewing humanitarian crisis that cannot, will not be easily resolved, even if the lockdown is lifted.

1. Delays in testing mean we cannot calibrate our ECQ;

2. Reality is even with targeted testing, we would need to extend our ECQ;

3. Failure to coordinate supply chains means and properly plan logistics means we are trapped between two terrible outcomes.

4. Middle class is being squeezed. Remember, middle class here actually begins right above the poverty line;

5. Banking penetration is still around 25% - which means savings is limited;

6. Only 30% of SMEs are banked or receive credit.

7. Backstopping banks, again, is much needed, but only affects a small slice of individuals and SMEs;

8. Traditional for enterprise to maintain 3-6 months of cash coverage. But, with advent of cheap credit this has come down.

9. There are serious concerns about fiscal position (and thus, ability) of government to buoy us and provide stimulus post-immediate crisis;

10. In brief, an extension will help break chain of transmission, but it will further erode household + enterprise solvency.

11. Remember, lifting or phasing the ECQ does not mean economic activity restarts. Unemployment is going to shock. And we have no idea how many have slid below the poverty line;

12. Testing is, and always was, not just a public health, but economic concern.

13. Some of the businesses that have closed, will not reopen;

14. Many SMEs will require a cash infusion to be able to rehire and restart ops;

15. I am not sure if government can think/act big enough. Likely multilateral institutions will need to step in too.

Conclusion.

Public health is suffering. Our government's response so far has lacked the needed creativity and compassion. ECQ likely will be extended. But, an extension brings more economic and social ramifications.

It's not just response, but long term mitigation we need.

Wealth never trickles down, but shit does.

Which means short term economic interventions or focusing just on formal sectors of the economy is not enough. It won't be enough.

One more note: Remittances, remittances, remittances.

Our economic structure is consumption and service oriented, buoyed in part by BPO + remittances. Job security is practically non-existent (hello, service contractuals), this needs watching.