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Some say the US is doing better fighting the #coronavirus . Yes and no. Thread.
This chart shows NEW DAILY cases in the US states, stacked. Very much up and to the right. We're adding now 35k cases/day. That's half an official Hubei. [1/9]
![Some say the US is doing better fighting the #coronavirus . Yes and no. Thread.This chart shows NEW DAILY cases in the US states, stacked. Very much up and to the right. We're adding now 35k cases/day. That's half an official Hubei. [1/9]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU5_Y4cUMAANb1R.jpg "Some say the US is doing better fighting the #coronavirus . Yes and no. Thread.This chart shows NEW DAILY cases in the US states, stacked. Very much up and to the right. We're adding now 35k cases/day. That's half an official Hubei. [1/9]")
This chart shows NEW DAILY cases in the US states, stacked. Very much up and to the right. We're adding now 35k cases/day. That's half an official Hubei. [1/9]
Good news: 18 states have a decreasing or stable # of new daily cases. You can see them in the chart: they're all the bottom ones up to the grey one (CA).
Bad news: 32 are still accelerating their # of daily cases [2/9]
Bad news: 32 are still accelerating their # of daily cases [2/9]
So are we good or bad? Let's look at Chart 2.
Horizontal axis: daily growth in new cases. 50% means today you had 100 new cases and tomorrow you'll have 150. It gives you a sense of how bad the situation is officially. [3/9]
![So are we good or bad? Let's look at Chart 2.Horizontal axis: daily growth in new cases. 50% means today you had 100 new cases and tomorrow you'll have 150. It gives you a sense of how bad the situation is officially. [3/9]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU5_REoUwAIuf6u.jpg "So are we good or bad? Let's look at Chart 2.Horizontal axis: daily growth in new cases. 50% means today you had 100 new cases and tomorrow you'll have 150. It gives you a sense of how bad the situation is officially. [3/9]")
Horizontal axis: daily growth in new cases. 50% means today you had 100 new cases and tomorrow you'll have 150. It gives you a sense of how bad the situation is officially. [3/9]
Vertical axis: % tests that are positive. 3% means you're testing a lot of people, so you know well the situation. 40% means you have no idea, because you're not testing enough. So higher up means you don't really know what's happening in your state.
Reference: DE SK SG are ~3%
Reference: DE SK SG are ~3%
Let's take a few examples.
North Dakota has only 3% of positives. The # of new cases is down 10% every day. Fantastic. They see cases going down, and it probably reflects reality. Plus they have less than 200 cases total, so it might be a state with things under control. [5/9]
North Dakota has only 3% of positives. The # of new cases is down 10% every day. Fantastic. They see cases going down, and it probably reflects reality. Plus they have less than 200 cases total, so it might be a state with things under control. [5/9]
North Carolina grew over the last 3 days at 80% day over day in new cases. That's like multiplying by 60x in a week. Their testing is at 6% of positives, so maybe they're seeing all this growth just because they've ramped up testing. In any case, doesn't look good. [6/9]
New York is still growing at 15% new cases day over day, and their testing is still 40% positives, so they're still undercounting. This is bad. [7/9]
Georgia and Mississippi are decreasing by ~10% every day. That sounds awesome! Except they have no idea because 24% of their tests are positive. So it might just be wishful thinking, luck, not enough testing, or bad testing. They don't know. [8/9]
The overarching point is that you have 5 green states, 6 yellow / orange states, and 39 red states: either cases are still growing or they don't know their situation.
This is still not great. [9/9]
#StaySafe
This is still not great. [9/9]
#StaySafe
