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1/ Some amazing news at this hour for my fellow residents of the Pittsburgh area and all across Pennsylvania.
In previous posts I pointed to the good signs in the data for us and now the update projections look even better.
Astounding really.
Let's look at the IMHE model:
In previous posts I pointed to the good signs in the data for us and now the update projections look even better.
Astounding really.
Let's look at the IMHE model:
2/ The IMHE model is the one most widely cited. The had indicated they would update on Saturday but the update came late Sunday night.
News worth waiting for.
Amazing drops in vast categories (though not all).
Instead of over 2,000 deaths in PA by August - it's now 782.
News worth waiting for.
Amazing drops in vast categories (though not all).
Instead of over 2,000 deaths in PA by August - it's now 782.
3/ Take a look at the update:
https://bit.ly/2Re5tVo
Sort to the PA results.
While the model still projects a slightly higher national death toll -- it shows a vast decrease in the demand on resource capacity.
Let's look at some of the PA numbers...
https://bit.ly/2Re5tVo
Sort to the PA results.
While the model still projects a slightly higher national death toll -- it shows a vast decrease in the demand on resource capacity.
Let's look at some of the PA numbers...
4/ The model from last week projected our peak day of resource need would be April 18.
That is now seven days earlier -- April 11.
Yesterday the IMHE projected we would need 7,428 beds on that the peak day.
The new peak projection is 1,715 beds.
That is now seven days earlier -- April 11.
Yesterday the IMHE projected we would need 7,428 beds on that the peak day.
The new peak projection is 1,715 beds.
5/ How many beds are available on that day? 14,395.
The projected need for ventilators? The projection Saturday was 904. The new projection is 267.
PA hospitals currently have 4,000 ventilators.
https://bit.ly/2wX1mX3
More good news on the projected deaths in PA...
The projected need for ventilators? The projection Saturday was 904. The new projection is 267.
PA hospitals currently have 4,000 ventilators.
https://bit.ly/2wX1mX3
More good news on the projected deaths in PA...
6/ In the model still active on Saturday the IMHE projected that on the peak day in PA we would have 79 people die state wide.
The new projected total is 32 deaths on the peak day.
Note -- the peak day for deaths is a few days later than the peak day for resources.
More...
The new projected total is 32 deaths on the peak day.
Note -- the peak day for deaths is a few days later than the peak day for resources.
More...
7/ Take a look at the charts.
Here's the projection for resources needed:
Here's the projection for resources needed:
8/ Here the resource projection on a graph. Note that there would be almost no resource demand by May.
9/ And the graph shows nearly zero additional deaths by mid-May:
10/ Now -- the IMHE model says it is based on assuming full social distancing through May. But even with that -- they are projecting almost no serious situation in PA by May.
Let me also say -- I'm not a scientist or medical professional. Just an old reporter looking for facts.
Let me also say -- I'm not a scientist or medical professional. Just an old reporter looking for facts.
11/ Let's also note -- while we in Pittsburgh have been in "stay at home" mode for a couple of weeks, the state wide order started April 1.
That's even better news.
Look at the sequence from exposure, to symptoms, to complications, to deaths.
That's even better news.
Look at the sequence from exposure, to symptoms, to complications, to deaths.
12/ It means that most of the people in real peril now were exposed before the stay at home order.
Our prayers are with them and those caring for them.
But hopefully our diligence in social distancing will make the numbers even lower than the new projections.
Our prayers are with them and those caring for them.
But hopefully our diligence in social distancing will make the numbers even lower than the new projections.
