I have a question about New York & ventilators. How many are in use right now? Total in ICU in New York state is 4,376 & hospitalized is 16,479 and so when do you need a ventilator? ICU or just hospitalized?

NPR reports that once u need ventilators, odds are narrowed... https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1246980939965579269

Headlines for New York, Cuomo, and Ventilators. I read most of these reports, from glowing thank of Cuomo to China to frantic Blasio we're gonna be out of ventilators.

Facts? How many does NY have & how many currently being use & how many needed?

Let's gather facts vs opinions

Let me be clearer: how come all these news articles do not answer the most basic question before it writes these histrionic headlines repeating lines from Cuomo & Blasio (esp Blasio since he has a bad track record):

a) How many ventilators are available?
b) How many in used?

Found a guideline NY from 2015 th on what to in a pandemic & tells u the stock they had at the time (sufficient for mild pandemic but not 1918 style).

2015 stock was 8,991.

https://www.health.ny.gov/regulations/task_force/reports_publications/docs/ventilator_guidelines.pdf

Assuming inventory is higher now in 2020 (Cuomo presser has said that it was higher but I can't find it now).

According this this New York government health guideline, ventilators are used only in critical use & hospitals avoid non-critical use of ventilators.

NY ICU= 4,376

Cuomo said NY needs 40,000 ventilators. Here is a document by NY health department on 2 scenarios - moderate & severe pandemic.

Moderate scenario:

19,799 deaths in 6 weeks (current 4,159)
97,791 hospitalization (current 23,069

According to this doc they would be in SURPLUS!

So you can see that our current situation is MILDER than the MODERATE pandemic assumption & that assuming says we would have a SURPLUS of ventilators.

Okay, let's look at WORST CASE (1918 style):

Deaths = 162,000 (current 4,159)

Shortfall is -15,783! Where's this 40k from?

Let me recap from the New York Health Department official document of how to distribute ventilators & also their scenario analysis of ventilators & what they need: NY has a SURPLUS in moderate & our current situation is NOT AS BAD as the moderate.

Worst case only -15,783 missing