Covid19 update thread for 04-05-2020

Today: reported daily positives and fatalaties dropped. This is good, but I'm skeptical it's not just a reporting artifact (especially since fatalaties should lag positives).

Also today: Pennsylvania positive cases now 8th highest among the states.

Overall US total tests, positive results, deaths, and hospitalizations (where available)

Based on @covid19tracking data

Last two weeks of daily positives for the US.

The signal we're looking for here is: is this going down consistently, not up, bending the curve? Seeming progress today, but the key word is consistently (could just be reporting).

Last two weeks of daily fatalities for the US.

Again, is this going down consistently? Not yet. Will probably happen later than positives.

Total tested, positives, deaths, & hospitalization data (where available) in the 9 states with highest positive case counts

Reported deaths over time in the 7 states with most fatalities

Note the relative flatness of the WA and CA curves (though not yet really bending). Michigan and New Jersey slopes ominous.

States in rank order by reported deaths per 10 million population

(Note: this is not the same as reported deaths)

TED spread, a measure of the risk of commerical banks defaulting: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEDRATE/ 

When this gets too high, lending is becoming risky, & markets can freeze. Now well above 0.5% (not good!), still climbing, but well below the peaks of 2008

One rough proxy measure of social stability in the US: Trump's approval rating, from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Currently at 45.8%, a near-peak for him. His typical rating is more like 40%. Very little pushes it up or down, but it's up since early March 2020.