This is the hand.

Flop: is the curve flattening?

Turn: does the virus go away? second wave? can we fully re open and when?

River: what does the economy look like after this?

The answers are yes, no, yes, July/August, and weak. The market will trade on most recent headline until fundamentals become once again observable / analyze-able. Liquidity is very low. Information is zero. I would expect wild moves. There are no fundamentals in price.

Most the the arguments I see with certainty are suffering from aggressive “i’m just going to ignore most of the information” syndrome. Hardest part is even if you knew exactly how the virus would play out, unless you assume v quick normalization, very hard to be optimistic on EPS