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How do we safely re-open our societies + economies after #COVID19?
How do we move from the Great Confinement to the Grand Reopening?
A thread.
How do we move from the Great Confinement to the Grand Reopening?
A thread.
Scientists + policy actors are beginning to consider risk-adapted re-opening strategies.
This new report from @ifo_Institut in Germany considers who should be allowed out, when, & how that should be coordinated & communicated:
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/Coronavirus-Pandemic_Strategy.pdf
2/20
This new report from @ifo_Institut in Germany considers who should be allowed out, when, & how that should be coordinated & communicated:
https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/Coronavirus-Pandemic_Strategy.pdf
2/20
But as China has learned, even countries that control domestic transmission remain vulnerable to viral resurgence while others struggle with COVID-19.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52059085
The only solution is to seal oneself off from the globe – a recipe for economic disaster.
3/20
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52059085
The only solution is to seal oneself off from the globe – a recipe for economic disaster.
3/20
So we are going to need a globally coordinated exit plan, covering things like rules on cross-border travel + mutual recognition of immunity certificates.
Even before we get there, we need int'l coordination to achieve global containment of the viral & economic contagion.
4/20
Even before we get there, we need int'l coordination to achieve global containment of the viral & economic contagion.
4/20
That’s just what the @UN General Assembly called for unanimously on Thursday, asking @antonioguterres “to work with all relevant actors in order to mobilize a coordinated global response.”
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/02/world/europe/ap-un-virus-outbreak-un-resolution-.html
5/20
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/04/02/world/europe/ap-un-virus-outbreak-un-resolution-.html
5/20
2 days earlier, the SG published a major report on the socio-economic impacts of #COVID19.
It calls, amongst other things, for “a large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global GDP”.
https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_report_socio-economic_impact_of_covid19.pdf
6/20
It calls, amongst other things, for “a large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global GDP”.
https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_report_socio-economic_impact_of_covid19.pdf
6/20
So what would such a plan look like?
In a post @UNUCPR, I set out 4 initial elements for such a plan.
https://twitter.com/UNUCPR/status/1246198115130105865
7/20
In a post @UNUCPR, I set out 4 initial elements for such a plan.
https://twitter.com/UNUCPR/status/1246198115130105865
7/20
1st, a Global Response Clearinghouse.
A global risk-adapted re-opening requires states to share accurate + timely information on responses in various policy domains, inc.
- x-border movement of response-critical personnel + goods;
- labour migration;
- agricultural markets.
8/
A global risk-adapted re-opening requires states to share accurate + timely information on responses in various policy domains, inc.
- x-border movement of response-critical personnel + goods;
- labour migration;
- agricultural markets.
8/
The @UN is uniquely positioned to coordinate this, with real-time reporting from Member States, and support from @WHO @ILO @ICAO @FAO @IFAD @IMOHQ @WFP @WTO @UNWTO @UNmigration.
9/20
9/20
2nd, a massive liquidity injection for developing countries.
FDI outflows from emerging markets are currently occurring 2ce as fast as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, just at the time they need funds to pay for #COVID19 containment.
10/20
FDI outflows from emerging markets are currently occurring 2ce as fast as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, just at the time they need funds to pay for #COVID19 containment.
10/20
As @UNCTAD argued last week, @IMFNews holds a key. An injection of $1tn in Special Drawing Rights (SDRSs) would help:
https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/gds_tdr2019_covid2_en.pdf
It won't be uncontroversial.
11/20
https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/gds_tdr2019_covid2_en.pdf
It won't be uncontroversial.
11/20
@antonioguterres could broker a deal with @KGeorgieva + 
not only to help out developing countries but also provide currency stability in a time of major deficits.
12/20
not only to help out developing countries but also provide currency stability in a time of major deficits. 12/20
3rd, a global debt holiday.
Developing countries are at particular risk, with $2.7tn in debt repayments due by next year.
China is their #1 creditor, but the @WorldBank also has a key role to play. @antonioguterres could broker a debt relief deal with them.
13/20
Developing countries are at particular risk, with $2.7tn in debt repayments due by next year.
China is their #1 creditor, but the @WorldBank also has a key role to play. @antonioguterres could broker a debt relief deal with them. 13/20
He shouldn’t stop there.
Debt crises are going to test the bonds of political solidarity in many other places, including:
-Europe: https://www.ft.com/content/d8086302-6545-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
-the US: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-cities-bankruptcy/609169/
14/20
Debt crises are going to test the bonds of political solidarity in many other places, including:
-Europe: https://www.ft.com/content/d8086302-6545-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
-the US: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-cities-bankruptcy/609169/
14/20
So @antonioguterres could explore working with global financial + govt leaders to announce a global debt holiday – suspension of repayments + new interest – for defined classes of debt.
This would be a true demonstration of ‘stakeholder capitalism’.
NB @WEF
15/20
This would be a true demonstration of ‘stakeholder capitalism’.
NB @WEF
15/20
Finally, we need a Global Task Force on COVID-19 diagnostics, vaccines + therapeutics. These are the tools that will unlock true exit from the crisis.
Without scaled up access to testing, esp., restrictions on mobility will remain, & economic pain will continue.
16/20
Without scaled up access to testing, esp., restrictions on mobility will remain, & economic pain will continue.
16/20
Int'l efforts to develop a vaccine are currently highly fragmented & competitive. It’s falling to leaders such as @BillGates to chart a path:
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
17/20
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
17/20
As the SG’s report noted:
“The world is in urgent need of a common vision & plan of action for leveraging the latest advances in scientific research, emerging technologies & new data sources”
https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_report_socio-economic_impact_of_covid19.pdf
18/20
“The world is in urgent need of a common vision & plan of action for leveraging the latest advances in scientific research, emerging technologies & new data sources”
https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_report_socio-economic_impact_of_covid19.pdf
18/20
This Task Force would bring together key research, industry, financing + regulatory actors, to coordinate and accelerate the process of discovering, financing, manufacturing & distributing these medicines, until the crisis passes.
19/20
19/20
Last week @antonioguterres called #COVID19 the “greatest test since WWII”. That makes it the @UN’s greatest test ever.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52114829
Despite #socialdistancing, we'll need to stick together to get out of this. Perhaps these 4 steps will help.
20/20
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52114829
Despite #socialdistancing, we'll need to stick together to get out of this. Perhaps these 4 steps will help.
20/20
