1) During the #COVID crisis, Premier @francoislegault has earned widespread praise for his daily briefings. He's resisted comparisons between Quebec’s record and other provinces. But on Sunday, Legault compared Quebec favorably with Germany. In this thread, I fact check this.

2) On Saturday, the Premier linked online to a New York Times article lauding Germany’s response to the #pandemic, tweeting it’s a “recipe for success: more tests and more measures to limit contact between people.” So is Quebec in the same league as Germany?

3) Unprompted, Legault made the comparison between Quebec and Germany regarding #COVID19. To be clear, I’m not making this comparison. However, Legault’s well-intentioned comparison invites us to assess whether it’s a fair one. Let me quote the Premier:

4) “The best model that we’re all trying to follow is the one in Germany,” Legault said. “When we checked into this, we found two things: they did a lot of tests, about the same number per capita as us.” Legault also compared Quebec favorably with Germany on #SocialDistancing.

5) “The people of Germany are disciplined and we’re also seeing that Quebecers are disciplined,” Legault added. If that is indeed the case, why did Montreal’s mayor, @Val_Plante, warn Montrealers to stop gathering in parks under threat of police fines?

6) Let’s now check Quebec’s record on #COVID tests per capita. Yes, the Premier is correct in this regard. One might argue Quebec is testing even more than Germany. But that’s not the point. The crisis-ridden U.S. has carried out the most tests. The question is when to test.

7) Germany started testing its population aggressively weeks before March 9, when Quebec started. The later a country waits to test in this #pandemic, the more tests ultimately it will have to carry out, as the U.S. is now finding out.

8) Germany’s testing strategy was also much more aggressive than Quebec’s. On Feb. 26, Germany asked athletes and others returning from China, Italy and South Korea to self-isolate for 14 days and to get tested.

9) In contrast, Quebec launched its testing clinics on March 9. The province asked people returning from Hubei province, but not all of China, to self-isolate and to seek tests only if they had symptoms. Quebec also did not require that people returning from Italy self-isolate.

10) The comparisons can go on and on. The question to ask is whether it was wise for the Premier to imply to Quebecers that Quebec may be on a par with Germany at a time when #COVID cases are still climbing here, the most of any province.

11) Quebecers are doing their best, making sacrifices and are to be encouraged. But do they deserve false hope? We need the facts. Let's turn to the situation in Montreal, Canada’s #COVID hot spot. On Sunday, the city reported a one-day increase of 452 cases, its second highest.

12) Please look below at the logarithmic chart I created. The blue line shows Montreal’s curve, and if it continues like this, it could be another two weeks before we start peaking. Dr. Richard Massé suggested Sunday that Quebec might reach its peak in 15 days.

13) Meanwhile, the number of #COVID outbreaks in Montreal’s long-term care centres rose to 28 on Sunday from 24 the day before. The city did not release figures on the number of deaths, but we can presume the death toll has climbed from 29 on Friday.

14) Please look at the chart below for Quebec's latest #COVID19 mortality figures. I believe the surge speaks for itself. Since widespread testing is not available, I urge people to continue to practice #PhysicalDistancing and to stay indoors as much as possible. End of thread.