PART TWO.
(1)Dictators survive not because of the use of force or ideology but because they convinced the public rightly or wrongly that they are competent. Such regimes simulate democracies, holding elections that they make sure they win

(2)..bringing and censoring the media rather than abolish it. They ensure the loyalty of the army by bribing and guatanteeing a life of comfort. To keep his generals happy he must finance this at the expense of the country.

(3) These dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. But if living standards worsens and he is no longer able to bribe his generals and provide them with lavish comfort, then there is trouble on the horizon.

(4) in the last few decades Chad has burned through whatever little oil reserve it had at the lake Chad Basin. The proceeds from this oil was used not to build infrastructure or investing the people but to build a powerful and loyal army.

(5) when you go to Chad and see the conditions of its people you realise there is no other country on the planet that needs the exploitation of profitable resources as desperate as landlocked Chad. Chad has a population of just 7.5 million people

(6) yet it can hardly feed its people with a per capita GDP of $220 Chad is the 5th poorest country in the world. Chad has no refineries. The country's fragile downstream infrastructure is easily rattled by problems beyond her borders

(7) as far back as 2015 the DSS had given a stern warning that it could take tougher measures over Chad's aiding and abetting of boko Haram. Coming from a military background he interpreted the term "tough measures" to mean military action.

(8) with France and the United States maintaining a strong military presence in the country, he concluded that the Nigerian government was just sabre-rattling. Nigeria accounts for 70% of Chad's import of refined products

(9) Chad's economy which is mostly subsistence relies 90% on access to Nigeria's large consumer market. Weapons pouring into Nigeria from Chad has become so pervasive that by 2019 president buhari has had enough

(10) in August 2019 Nigeria's president ordered the immediate shutdown of its borders without warning. This is the first time in history that an African nation will be closing its land borders completely. Neighbouring countries were taken by surprise.

(11) Chad with no economic fundamentals to act as a cushion was hit the hardest. As their economy suffered several high-profile visits to Abuja by neighbouring countries pleading for the reopening of the border yielded no results.

(12) With growing discontent within the ranks of the Chadian army, Idris Deby needs one major thing to fund his army and quel discontent. Access to the vast unexplored oil reserves in the Nigerian administered islands of Lake Chad.

(13)Now its pertinent to note that Boko Haram was not created by Chad or France. Boko Haram is a home grow insurgency that has presented Nigeria's geopolitical foes with an enticing target of open opportunity.

(14)Boko Haram has for years maintained several camps in Chadian controlled islands in the lake Chad basin. They are allowed to use these islands, far beyond the reach of the Nigerian military as sanctuaries because it plays into their advantage.

(15)No matter how badly beaten, no matter the level of casualties they suffer, they simply slip across the border to their safe sanctuary to replenish their ranks. How can the United States and France not know the existence of these sanctuaries?

(16) They have the world's most sophisticated and deadliest drone based just kilometres nearby. The lake Chad basin is to Nigeria what Taiwan is to China. Any move on those Islands will certainly draw a Nigerian response.

(17)Both countries went to war in 1983 over this trip wire. But here is the catch. The staged attacks on those islands is but a first step. Nigerians jubilating and disparaging the Nigerian army over the actions of Chad on its own territory are playing into the hand of Deby

(18)Making the Nigerian army look incompetent gives Deby legitimacy in the eyes of the world. If they had prior knowledge of those camps then it begs the questions why have they been allowed sanctuary?

(19)If Chad suceeds in delegitimizing the Nigerian govt in the eyes of Nigerians and praise Deby's army as saviours then we have walked unwithingly ourselves into a trap.

(20)The Chadians will stage a spectacular capture of those islands, dislodging Boko Haram into Nigerian administered Islands rich in hydrocarbon. Since we have given them legitimacy, they have the mandate to go after Boko Haram whereever they may run to.

(21)Up until now the Chadian government have been averse of risking a showdown. Now with the backing of the international community and the Nigerian people they will capture those Islands from Boko Haram. Once this is achieved they will setup camp.

(22)Protesting Chadian occupation of those islands will make the Nigerian government look stupid and unappreciative in the eyes of the rest of the world. They will never leave those islands, same way the French and Americans will never leave West Africa

(23) I'm the name of fighting Boko Haram they built military bases in Chad, Niger and Cameroon. Same way the in the name of fighting Boko Haram the occupation of those Nigerian islands rich in hydrocarbon will be accomplished.

Nigeria lost Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon over a decade ago through trickery. We apparently never learnt from our past mistakes.