1/9 A thread on the potential for flooding on the Muskoka River Watershed...LAYMAN'S EDITION:

Generally speaking, the current snowpack in Algonquin Park (at the top of the watershed) is less than 2019 by a significant margin.

2/9 Not going through all gauges, but if we stop in my former home, Port Sydney, Mary Lake is at the average summertime level. A lot of rain two weeks ago also took a quit a bit of snow with it and spiked the levels quickly. (1 year view)

3/9 The discharge at the dam in Port Sydney also spiked at the same time to move more water. Snow still melting and feeding the lakes. The discharge at this point is a fraction of last year.

4/9 On Lake of Bays, the water is yet to get to summer levels.

5/9 The water at the Baysville Dam is also moving at a fraction of last year's peak.

6/9 Lake Muskoka is just shy of summer levels. Anecdotally, the level at our family's cottage on the Muskoka river is not threatening. Most years in gets over the docks and hasn't yet. It was 4' over the dock last year.

7/9 The output of the Moon River (at Hwy 400) is also down from last year's crazy peak.

8/9 As a wrap-up, it sure seems like more of a "traditional" spring freshet. Much of the snow is gone, at least in South Muskoka and the weather has been warm during the day, cool at night which is good for natural regulation. The weather looks good for another week...

9/9 ...so I'm HOPEFUL that unless we get biblical rain, the freshet will be mostly a non-event (and we'll only have 1 emergency to worry about this spring). Happy to hear anyone else's thoughts, esp if you're seeing something different than I am, or are a professional at this.