I cannot read this article because I've used up my monthly allotment. But before I take another indefinite Twitter break, my dear indifferent followers, here's a short thread explaining why I find the attacks on expertise at the moment unconscionably reckless. 1/17 https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1246699508450418696

It ought to go without saying (but apparently does not) that experts are not oracles, discredited the moment they err. They are imperfect people working with incomplete information in a rapidly evolving situation of massive uncertainty and risk.

There's still much about the virus and the way it behaves that's not well understood: What's the CFR? How dangerous is it to those under 70? Or under 40? Why does it seem to kill more men than women? Is hydrochloroquine effective treatment? Do masks work? Has Sweden got it right?

The people tasked with answering these questions are not making determinations between obviously correct and incorrect or moral and immoral options, they are making *judgement calls*, and expert opinion on the right call is often divided and fraught with imponderables.

Some of the calls made during this crisis will inevitably turn out to be wrong. Some will be seriously wrong and have grave consequences. These mistakes must be scrutinised, not to vilify those responsible but so we can learn from them and be better prepared next time.

I'm seeing people accuse "elites" and experts of lying to the public about masks. This is an exceedingly serious claim that demands to be supported by comparably robust evidence. Is there any? Scott Alexander floated the 'noble lie' theory and later retracted it and apologised.

I encourage those interested in this debate to read his full post here https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/ and Ed Yong's Atlantic essay here: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-pandemic-airborne-go-outside-masks/609235/ Both show the maddening level of uncertainty attending this discussion.

Today I left my flat for the first time in 3 weeks to restock my food. I'd say maybe 1/5 of shoppers were wearing surgical masks. I saw people scratching behind them. I saw noses uncovered. I saw an employee with his mask round his neck eating a glazed Danish with his fingers.

Given this it doesn't surprise me at all that experts have been reluctant to emphasise their efficacy. The debate is not between "masks work"/"masks don't work" but about how effective they are, and the degree to which this depends on the behaviour of the virus *and* mask wearer.

And yet I'm seeing people who know full well the value of intelligence, knowledge, and professional experience telling large Twitter followings that elites/experts are *lying* to the public and deliberately endangering them. Absent proof could there be a more inflammatory charge?

It is absolutely fine—no, *vital*—to question received wisdom, to forward contrary arguments and data, to demand better proof of claims and so on. But now more than ever we need to be circumspect and responsible as we debate the way forward together not recklessly incendiary.

Should populist attempts to discredit and undermine confidence in expertise succeed, the gap will be filled by whichever unreflective demagogue with a deeply felt intuition can shout loudest. I really don't want to live in that world.

There *are* some genuinely bad actors out there who lie for self-interest irrespective of the cost to public trust and health. Twas ever thus. But what I mostly see among those poring over data are men and women struggling to do their best in extremely difficult circumstances.

Policymakers and their advisers are trying to balance threats to health with jobs and livelihoods based on incomplete information. They are making unprecedented judgements about is politically possible and what sacrifices people can reasonably be expected to make for others.

This is not easy or obvious, and—to return to the screenshot in Ian Leslie's tweet—we should be suspicious of those who want to convince us it is. For the most part, mistakes will be made not because people are corrupt and mendacious but because they are human.

I'm not an expert of any kind. I'm just a layperson. I live by myself. I'm lonely and fed up and afraid for my health and the health of my friends and family just like everyone else. I understand the frustration, exacerbated as it is by confinement.

But we are all trapped in a situation most of us can do nothing about and we need to come to terms with this unpleasant fact. Attacking those whose knowledge offers the best chance of a way out is not just unhelpful it's destructive and profoundly dangerous. /END