This is page 3 of our new hitting assessment report, which I didn't necessarily think I'd release in the name of defending bat speed... but here we are lol (a threadski). https://twitter.com/JasonOchart/status/1246862396494196736
Yes, our MLB numbers are just proxies based on EV, but bat speed is easy to model with solid methods, so I'm comfortable with our esty's. Based on our directly measured Bat Speed numbers, the average NCAA player's bat is ***slower than the slowest bat in the bigs*** min 100 PAs
Fun facts about bat speed: In 2019, roughly 3% of big leaguers swung a bat sub 70mph. Of those 3%, 38% ran a sub 4.15 down the line, 94% played up the middle or at multiple positions, and collectively, they had a wRC+ of 81.
Basically, if you do not have a bat speed of at least 70mph... your options of reaching MLB are as follows:
- Run a 4.0 flat down the line (Straw, Hamilton)
- Save >5 runs per year at a prem position (Inciarte, Nicky Lopez, etc)
- 80 grade bat to ball skills (Holt, Fletcher, etc)
Alternatively, instead of hoping that you possess generational talent in one specific area of your game or that you develop bat speed by chance... you can train to improve bat speed without sacrificing other attributes in the process.
Personally, I think the second strategy in the tweet above makes the most sense... I wish more people would feel the same way
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