1/ There's been a lot of talk about VALORANT, particularly focusing on its impact on CS:GO and OW in terms of player numbers and the implied impact on viewership.

However, that misses what I believe to be the far more significant impact VALORANT will have on esports.

2/ Unless VALORANT significantly increases the size of the pie by e.g., drawing players from the broader Riot ecosystem of LoL players, getting Fortnite players to switch, etc., it's true that player numbers are a (growing) zero-sum game, so impact on incumbents will be negative.

3/ It's possible that VALORANT will attract new players altogether due to its cartoony graphics and the game being free-to-play. However, the exact impact on the incumbents (beyond clearly being negative) is largely irrelevant to the broader, more important point.

4/ Where the impact will really be felt is on the business side.

OW is franchised (w/ contractual obligations in the millions, plus paid in capital), so it's a different animal.

On the other hand, CS:GO stands to face significant short-term disruption from VALORANT.

5/ In 2020, unless you're part of Flashpoint or otherwise doing something with potential to disrupt the CS:GO ecosystem and entirely change the power dynamics and economics of it, you're probably not getting new investors very excited about CS:GO.

6/ CS:GO is a great game (arguably the best esport, though I'm biased), but it's an average business at present, and the fundamental economics will not change significantly without real disruption to how the entire ecosystem is structured, involving power transfer from players.

7/ With COVID-19 wrecking the economy, raising money for esports teams is very tough, if not impossible, at present. Things should return to normalcy, and the leading indicators (engagement, etc.) point up and to the right despite the pandemic.

But it will take time.

8/ When teams go to market, the story for turning a corner on sustainability can NOT be CS:GO. The economics (excl. Flashpoint and/or other potential disruption plays) are known, and don't show a clear path to the golden land, regardless of immense fan interest, etc.

9/ CS:GO continues growing, but you'd need a step function change to get over the hump. Tier-3 teams can do that (in the short-term) if they sign players on the cheap and level up quickly (e.g., ENCE, FURIA in 2019), but ultimately payroll catches up in talent business.

10/ If there is less investment to go around, the first to suffer will be tier 2-3 (and beyond) teams. The best capitalized teams with strongest backing will attract most interest, and will suffer less, and not as fast.

So what should, and will, the teams (esp. tier 2-3) do?

11/ Smart teams will try to get ahead of the curve by moving some chips away from CS:GO, and going after the next, potentially, big thing. Tier-1 can do both, for tier 2-3 it's likely an either/or proposition.

That's where VALORANT comes in and will have most impact on CS:GO.

12/ Riot has done a fantastic job with building the League of Legends ecosystem, and while we don't know the details of how VALORANT esports will be structured, it's not hard to see the massive potential early movers can tap into, if things break right for them.

13/ The tier-one LoL organizations (i.e., those with LCS, LEC, etc. teams) will almost certainly jump at the chance, but as with any new game, there will be an opportunity for smaller teams to make a name for themselves by being among the early winners, and alter status quo.

14/ If you manage to sign one of the best VALORANT teams early, you'll likely have a seat at the table when it comes to VALORANT esports.

That's a potential step function change, the kind that investors can get excited about that can transform the profile of a business.

15/ Tl;dr: VALORANT may not have much of an impact on players/viewership of CS:GO, but the support (salaries, etc.) available to CS:GO players, particularly beyond the tier-one teams, will potentially see a significant decrease. That matters now, AND especially in the future.

16/ If VALORANT has a significant impact on the lower tiers, the impact will (even if after delay) be felt by tier-one teams as well.

If viewership growth slows or absolute viewership declines, then salaries across the board will have to come down -- as will prizes.

17/ Something positive?

The CS:GO ecosystem at present is structurally unsustainable as current player salary/prize money levels, so a nudge towards healthier levels could actually be the best long-term solution -- it's certainly preferred to a one-off shock across the ecosystem

18/ I fully believe the free markets will sort out CS:GO's structural issues over time, but the short-term pain by a shock would still be devastating. It'd be better for everyone - teams, fans, players - for there to be a gradual adjustment instead.

VALORANT may be the catalyst.