Read on Twitter
1/OK here's a relatively small and inconsequential thing to distract from coronavirus.
The standard narrative of why Bernie lost the 2020 primary is that the Democratic Establishment forced Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg out of the race, clearing a path for Biden...
The standard narrative of why Bernie lost the 2020 primary is that the Democratic Establishment forced Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg out of the race, clearing a path for Biden...
2/But a few weeks before that happened, when I noted that Bernie was putting up sub-30% numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, I was told that this was only because he was facing a very divided field. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1227447986529226756
3/The implication was that Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Warren were taking a lot of support away from Bernie, and that if it were a two-person race, Bernie would be in the lead. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1227651647188291584
4/I interpreted Bernie's mediocre thin pluralities in Iowa and New Hampshire as a sign of lack of voter enthusiasm for his campaign.
I was roundly pilloried for this and dunked on by the Bernie folks, called an idiot, etc...
I was roundly pilloried for this and dunked on by the Bernie folks, called an idiot, etc...
5/But then Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out, and...it helped Biden a lot more than it helped Bernie.
And then Bloomberg and Warren dropped out, and...it helped Biden a lot more than it helped Bernie.
And then Bloomberg and Warren dropped out, and...it helped Biden a lot more than it helped Bernie.
6/The narrative has now completely flipped, from "Bernie is putting up low numbers because it's a divided field" to "Bernie only lost because the field stopped being divided."
7/Now, it's quite possible that earning 25-30% of the vote everywhere would have been enough to let Bernie win against a divided field, or at least take it to a brokered convention.
But those low #'s really do seem to have been a lack of enthusiasm for Bernie. I was right.
But those low #'s really do seem to have been a lack of enthusiasm for Bernie. I was right.
8/And low enthusiasm matters.
Suppose the field had stayed divided and Bernie had been able to eke out a nomination victory at a brokered convention. AND then beaten Trump.
Low voter enthusiasm would have made it very difficult for him to push through his big plans, like M4A.
Suppose the field had stayed divided and Bernie had been able to eke out a nomination victory at a brokered convention. AND then beaten Trump.
Low voter enthusiasm would have made it very difficult for him to push through his big plans, like M4A.
9/Bernie's entire pitch is that a massive wave of popular energy - a Political Revolution - would allow him to pass legislation far bolder than stuff Dems had ever been able to pass in previous decades.
Without that wave of popular energy, the strategy just doesn't work.
Without that wave of popular energy, the strategy just doesn't work.
10/It seems to me that Bernie people need to come to grips with the fact that a majority of Americans, and a majority of Democratic voters, were simply too comfortable with their lives to sign on to the kind of revolutionary change Bernie was promising.
11/...Until coronavirus, of course.
If I were the Bernie people, I would be focusing my energy NOT on recriminations against the Democratic establishment, centrists, SJWs, or whoever, but on taking advantage of the current crisis to push for big change.
Just my 2Âą.
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If I were the Bernie people, I would be focusing my energy NOT on recriminations against the Democratic establishment, centrists, SJWs, or whoever, but on taking advantage of the current crisis to push for big change.
Just my 2Âą.
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