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A comment on lockdowns: Given their impact, they need a clear rationale. We have heard two:
1) To end ALL infections (see Dr. Fauci here, we can "relax social distancing" once we have "no new cases.")
This not a standard we apply to any other disease. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/01/coronavirus-latest-news/
1) To end ALL infections (see Dr. Fauci here, we can "relax social distancing" once we have "no new cases.")
This not a standard we apply to any other disease. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/01/coronavirus-latest-news/
2/ To avoid swamping the health-care system in the short term, either regionally or nationally. ("Flatten the curve.") In that case, we need:
A) hard evidence - not assertions, actually data - that the lockdowns don't paradoxically *worsen* the strain in the short-term...
A) hard evidence - not assertions, actually data - that the lockdowns don't paradoxically *worsen* the strain in the short-term...
3.
B) That hospital systems are *actually* (or in the very near future very likely to be) under severe strain. This is clearly untrue outside New York City (which is unlike the rest of the US in several important ways, notably density and reliance on mass transit)...
B) That hospital systems are *actually* (or in the very near future very likely to be) under severe strain. This is clearly untrue outside New York City (which is unlike the rest of the US in several important ways, notably density and reliance on mass transit)...
4.
C) A clearly articulated standard for when lockdowns will be put in place and what other measures (masks, fever checks at nursing homes, no gatherings over 50, etc) might be used if they are not.
It's time to start thinking rationally.
C) A clearly articulated standard for when lockdowns will be put in place and what other measures (masks, fever checks at nursing homes, no gatherings over 50, etc) might be used if they are not.
It's time to start thinking rationally.
