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LlToday is a beautiful day. However, we are near the period of maximum risk. Friends in cities, I urge you to avoid parks and common spaces. So sorry.
Out running, sorry about typos. Will update on death doubling-times in a little bit. See http://election.Princeton.edu – things are starting to improve nationally... keep up the distancing, everyone!
OK, stationary now. Lots of standing outside friends' houses, talking at 3-4 meters. Distance socializing.
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I was thinking.
Mathematical models of the disease are useful for state/national-level decisionmaking. But they doesn't seem to address what we need as individuals.
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I was thinking.
Mathematical models of the disease are useful for state/national-level decisionmaking. But they doesn't seem to address what we need as individuals.
By now we all know we should be social-distancing.
Now we're told to wear masks by the CDC. Doubled-up scarves, snipped-out pieces of MERV-12 or better air-conditioning filters, filter vacuum-cleaner bags, all can work.
Is this needed outside cities? https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-N95-mask-DIY-face-mask-health.html
Now we're told to wear masks by the CDC. Doubled-up scarves, snipped-out pieces of MERV-12 or better air-conditioning filters, filter vacuum-cleaner bags, all can work.
Is this needed outside cities? https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-N95-mask-DIY-face-mask-health.html
The answer appears to be yes.
I base this on the fact that coronavirus appears to spread equally effectively in a wide variety of states, whether sparsely or densely populated.
By region:
I base this on the fact that coronavirus appears to spread equally effectively in a wide variety of states, whether sparsely or densely populated.
By region:
Also notice the black line showing the entire U.S.
It's trending upward. Now 3.7 days. This is good!
The amount of time it takes for deaths to double is increasing. To make an analogy to compound interest, the "interest rate" of death is decreasing.
http://election.princeton.edu/2020/04/02/doubling-times/
It's trending upward. Now 3.7 days. This is good!
The amount of time it takes for deaths to double is increasing. To make an analogy to compound interest, the "interest rate" of death is decreasing.
http://election.princeton.edu/2020/04/02/doubling-times/
Some regions are doing better than others. In Pacific states (WA/OR/CA), the doubling-time is 5 to 10 days.
That's probably in the ballpark for conditions where the number of infected people is decreasing over time. Here's why...
That's probably in the ballpark for conditions where the number of infected people is decreasing over time. Here's why...
(Back to mask manufacture for a moment:
Some of you seem to not be reading @taraparkerpope's excellent article which I linked above. tl;dr:
good materials:
- quilting fabric
- filter vacuum cleaner bags
not great:
- just a bandanna
- coffee filters
now go read the piece!)
Some of you seem to not be reading @taraparkerpope's excellent article which I linked above. tl;dr:
good materials:
- quilting fabric
- filter vacuum cleaner bags
not great:
- just a bandanna
- coffee filters
now go read the piece!)
The rate at which people die of covid-19 is proportional to the number infected (until ICUs overflow). So if total deaths are doubling, so is the number of total cumulative infected.
But people don't stay infective forever. Probably more like ~2 weeks, i.e. 1 week on average.
But people don't stay infective forever. Probably more like ~2 weeks, i.e. 1 week on average.
I suggest that when the doubling-time of deaths gets above 7 days, the number of people becoming newly infected is less than the number of people getting over their infection.
In other words, Pacific states have maxed out on the number of infected. Their risk is now decreasing.
In other words, Pacific states have maxed out on the number of infected. Their risk is now decreasing.
In fact, they hit that breakeven point a while ago, since deaths are a lagging indicator of new infection.
So three cheers for @JayInslee and his government, who have led the way! They might be a few weeks away from the next stage of recovery, and maybe easing of restrictions.
So three cheers for @JayInslee and his government, who have led the way! They might be a few weeks away from the next stage of recovery, and maybe easing of restrictions.
Same for the Rockies, which are improving too.
(Ignore Idaho please - only 10 deaths there, can't interpret that graph. Sorry, will fix this soon.)
(Ignore Idaho please - only 10 deaths there, can't interpret that graph. Sorry, will fix this soon.)
For the rest of us, we're not there yet. Our doubling times are still in the 3-5 day range. We have over a month of social isolation ahead of us.
The bottom line for most of you is:
You are about to enter the single highest-risk week of this whole hellish experience.
Do not falter in your distancing behavior. Take extra care now, more than ever. Reduce the risk to you as an individual and to everyone you meet.
You are about to enter the single highest-risk week of this whole hellish experience.
Do not falter in your distancing behavior. Take extra care now, more than ever. Reduce the risk to you as an individual and to everyone you meet.
Obviously, that risk varies. Here in New Jersey, a very rough calculation suggests to me that as many as 1 in 20 people has coronavirus. Compliance with shelter-at-home is really quite critical here, at least for all of April and probably longer. https://www.nj.com/opinion/2020/03/the-lockdown-will-save-lives-group-of-scientists-says-unchecked-covid-19-could-kill-more-than-50k-in-nj.html
By the way, here is a list of all states where the time to double the number of deaths is 7 days or longer:
Washington
Oregon
Idaho
Utah
Vermont
Nations with major outbreaks for which this is true:
China
South Korea
Iran
Italy
Spain https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#growth-country-by-country-view
Washington
Oregon
Idaho
Utah
Vermont
Nations with major outbreaks for which this is true:
China
South Korea
Iran
Italy
Spain https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#growth-country-by-country-view
