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The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that *29%* of the economy is shut down. That's -29% growth - more than the Great Depression.
If you saw this stat in isolation, you'd not only think Trump is toast in 2020 - but that he wouldn't win a single state. 1/n
If you saw this stat in isolation, you'd not only think Trump is toast in 2020 - but that he wouldn't win a single state. 1/n
AND YET:
The Navigator daily tracking poll (D) shows that nearly 80% of Americans are thinking about this as a health crisis NOT an economic crisis - and that number is only increasing.
The Navigator daily tracking poll (D) shows that nearly 80% of Americans are thinking about this as a health crisis NOT an economic crisis - and that number is only increasing.
Not only that, the public is unwavering in supporting the measures that took the economy offline.
-29% growth is a policy choice that Americans are completely on board with.
-29% growth is a policy choice that Americans are completely on board with.
I've done a few interviews with reporters wondering what the economy's impact on 2020 will be.
If it wasn't already clear, the poli sci models are broken. The economy is not top of mind right now *despite -29% growth*. The health and safety of people and their families are.
If it wasn't already clear, the poli sci models are broken. The economy is not top of mind right now *despite -29% growth*. The health and safety of people and their families are.
The pandemic is reorienting American public opinion in the way a major war would. Nobody thinks the key facts about 1941-45 are that Americans couldn't buy new cars and food was rationed. In the same way, few are thinking of this as an economic/financial story first and foremost.
This wartime dynamic makes it *very difficult* to assign blame to the incumbent President for an economic collapse.
The public assigned blame to the incumbent party in 2008 because the slowdown was because something happened *inside the economy*. So the poli sci models worked.
The public assigned blame to the incumbent party in 2008 because the slowdown was because something happened *inside the economy*. So the poli sci models worked.
The public *did not* assign blame to the incumbent for the 2001-02 recession - because 9/11 happened - even though that was *just one of the causes* of the deepening recession.
Trump may not get to run on the economy any more. But he may get handed an even bigger incumbency trump card: Don't change horses in the middle of the major crisis/war.
Historically, this message has almost never failed.
Historically, this message has almost never failed.
This is based on sentiment *right now* - and of course, the dynamic is changing almost daily.
As long as the Federal government seems basically competent in handling what comes next - even if it could have done more early on - I do not expect this blame dynamic to shift.
As long as the Federal government seems basically competent in handling what comes next - even if it could have done more early on - I do not expect this blame dynamic to shift.
Historically, again, Americans have not assigned blame for failures of foresight leading up to major crises. Only for clear examples of incompetence once it was clear to everyone there was a crisis. Intelligence failures leading to 9/11 are an analogy here.
