I'm going to expand the below point a little ... https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1246560488378548226

First, a caution from one of my favorite professors in college, Roberto Lopez: "History never repeats itself. It only appears to do so to those who do not pay attention to details." 2/x

Among the differences between 1920 and 2020: 1920 was the first election in which women could vote for president. US women then tended to favor GOP as the more pro-temperance party. The 19th amendment reshaped the US electorate to boost GOP vote and depress Democrats. 3/x

There *was* a Fox News in 1920: the reactionary and isolationist Hearst papers read by something like 1 in 4 Americans. But Hearst stayed neutral in 1920. He hated Wilson's League of Nations, but was personally v close to Wilson's son-in-law and ambitious heir, Wm McAdoo. 4/x

(McAdoo - who married a daughter of Wilson's after the death of his first wife - was like a smart and competent Jared Kushner. Among other accomplishments, McAdoo led to successful completion subway tunnels under the Hudson River still used by the PATH system.) 5/x

And for sure in 1920 the party of the president deployed not only gerrymandering and voter suppression - but outright terrorist violence - to hold onto its southern redoubt. Unfair as they are, the elections of 2020 are a lot more fair than those of 1920. 6/x

But ... in the face of the disasters of 1919-20 (the pandemic, the 1920 Depression, the fiercest strike wave in US history, anarchist terrorism, racial strife in big northern cities) - not Hearst, not gerrymandering could save the party of the president from crushing defeat. 7/x

I cannot imagine Trump plunging as low as the 1920 Democrats' 36.1%

* Trump is seeking a second term, not a third.

* He represents a relatively bigger cultural base.

* Voters are more better educated, more ideological than a century ago.

BUT 8/x

Success and failure still matter to electoral outcomes even so. Look at incumbents who have lost re-election after one term in past 100 years:

George HW Bush
Jimmy Carter
Gerald Ford
Herbert Hoover

Only Hoover had a record remotely as horrifying as Trump's will be 9/x

Trump does not know much of this history, obviously.

But from the panicky look on his face - he can intuit it.

Trump's party bet voters would overlook Trump's bigotry and corruption because of "winning." Trump delivered death and disaster instead. 10/x

Trump and his political party are headed to political disaster - the kind of disaster that reshapes politics afterward. Those who survive the calamities of today will inhabit a very different political world tomorrow. 11/x

As for Trump personally, after a lifetime of staying always one step ahead of the debt-collectors and the cops ... both those terrors will catch up to him after 2020 too. -END -