One of the most important spreadsheets highlighting the economic turmoil and general clusterfuck we're facing.
Near Zero Economic Activity
Extreme Unemployment
No Rents
Debt Freeze
Payment Relief Schemes
Collapse
More Stimulus
Gradual Reopen
Slow Recovery
Near Zero Economic Activity








Small banks are the first to go.
I have some anecdotal personal info about a handful of others + some inside information (friends / acquaintances) about several small/medium businesses within the financial services sector that are likely to go under. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-announces-first-bank-failure-of-coronavirus-crisis-2020-04-03
I have some anecdotal personal info about a handful of others + some inside information (friends / acquaintances) about several small/medium businesses within the financial services sector that are likely to go under. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-announces-first-bank-failure-of-coronavirus-crisis-2020-04-03
- First April
Then May
Then June
- Now it's 1/3
Next it's 4/5
- First it's 'One Small Bank'
Soon it will be a few more
At some point it will be a more significant institution
Then it's 'Too Big To Fail' - The Sequel https://twitter.com/TheCompoundNews/status/1247839825346134017?s=20


- Now it's 1/3

- First it's 'One Small Bank'



"Roughly one in six small businesses that have loans with Bank of America are now in some sort of payment deferral program."
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/bank-america-1q-profit-falls-45-due-virus-70159176
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/bank-america-1q-profit-falls-45-due-virus-70159176
The South Park episode where Randy Marsh buys a 'Blockbuster' store is an apt and troubling analogy for reopening the economy.
Large sectors that had previously employed millions are simply not viable. With no demand for their services, the timeline of their revival is unclear.
Large sectors that had previously employed millions are simply not viable. With no demand for their services, the timeline of their revival is unclear.