Some thoughts on weekly deaths, England & Wales. We now have the ONS stats up til March 20th. Weekly deaths in 2020 have actually been trending bit below previous 5-year average so far. BUT there were “only" 103 Covid deaths w/e March 20, ominously up from 5 the week before.

So by March 20 the spike in Covid deaths had only just begun. This is significant because the five-year average will continue to decline (as we move from Winter to Spring) whereas the 2020 weekly figures are likely to rise with Covid spike.

Since March 20 it is likely 2020 weekly deaths have overtaken the previous 5-year average for the first time since the crisis broke, perhaps by quite a bit. We'll get an indication with w/e March 27 figures.

Influenza and pneumonia deaths have been somewhat lower than the previous 5-year average in 2020 up til March 20 and if that continues it would somewhat offset the Covid deaths spike.

Of course, since Covid deaths include deaths caused by Covid and deaths with Covid in the system, some of those who could well have died of influence and pneumonia anyway will be in the Covid category.

If the weekly death toll is not considerably higher than the five-year average since March 20 many will say — what’s all the fuss about? To which I guess the official response will be — it would have been much, much higher but for the lockdown and other measures ...

Final note: Deaths registered in England and Wales in week 12 (w/e 20 March) decreased from 11,019 in week 11 to 10,645. This is 72 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,573. So week 12 was when deaths started to overtake 5-year average for first time.