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Government threats to ban exercise outside the home are dangerous, illiberal, and deeply foolish on medical grounds.
"Never threaten something you can't carry through on." is a good rule of negotiating generally. And following through on this would break the UK's virus effort.
"Never threaten something you can't carry through on." is a good rule of negotiating generally. And following through on this would break the UK's virus effort.
On purely practical grounds, it's unenforceable. Even if patrolled by martial law, you can't coop people up across the hundreds upon hundreds of miles of rural England and Scotland. The manpower isn't there. And doing it only in cities would very reasonably breed resentment...
...which leads to problem 2, it breeds contempt for the whole lockdown and erodes public support, especially in this case among urban populations. If people are given rules they feel they can't help but breach, they're more likely to break more of the lockdown rules.
And it's genuinely true that people can't help but breach rules like this. This is a very, very trying time for many people mentally and physically. You have to give them the ability to look after themselves throughout it - not doing so is unconscionably immoral.
For some people, excessive rules would mean lockdown contempt. For others, it would mean mental health breakdowns and developing worse physical issues.
Guess what we don't have right now? If your answer was "spare healthcare capacity for those people", have a cookie.
Guess what we don't have right now? If your answer was "spare healthcare capacity for those people", have a cookie.
Banning outdoor exercise would erode the effort against the virus from all sides, rapidly. A breakdown in public respect for the guidance, huge additional enforcement costs, and major additional use of NHS systems needed to look after the people it would hurt and hurt badly.
We can't afford ANY of that right now.
I don't think it's got into people's heads that this system has to be able to be a reality for twelve weeks. We're so hyped up on the moment that nobody is thinking in those terms. With these rules it would crumple within a fortnight.
I don't think it's got into people's heads that this system has to be able to be a reality for twelve weeks. We're so hyped up on the moment that nobody is thinking in those terms. With these rules it would crumple within a fortnight.
So this threat is either the edge of catastrophic government overreach, or an empty threat which will erode public trust and cause rising panic (What's the best way to get far too many people outside at once? Tell them they might not be able to do so in a couple of days' time).
It was an appallingly poor decision for Matt Hancock & the Conservative government to issue this threat, and an equally poor decision for Keir Starmer to offer Labour's immediate backing for it. Complete lack of forethought - we need better from our leaders, and fast.
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