Short thread on France and covid-19. It increasingly looks as if France will not be following as awful a trajectory as Italy and Spain. This is showing up in a series of tentatively encouraging data points over the past 4-6 days 1/6

The increase in new hospital admissions for covid-19 in France has been slowing since April 1. This hints that nearly 3 weeks of confinement is starting to work:
Mar 31: +1749
April 1: +1882
April 2: +1607
April 3: +1186
April 4: +711 2/6

The rise in no. in intensive care has slowed for 5 consecutive days. The situation remains critical, but France’s hospitals are just about coping:
Mar 29: +359
Mar 30: +475
Mar 31: +458
April 1: +452
April 2: +382
April 3: +280
April 4: +176 3/6

Finally, no. of daily hospital deaths in France has been +/- 500 since March 30. No clear trend yet, but these numbers are expected to lag hospital admissions and no. in intensive care. (UK daily hospital deaths overtook France on April 1) 4/6

If French hospital covid-19 trends are tentatively encouraging, less so is the dire pattern unfolding in nationwide retirement homes . By April 4 these recorded 2,028 deaths, which aren’t included in France’s hospital death total (5,532) 5/6

All figures are from the French Ministry of Health, updated daily here https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ . Analysis of the advantages and limits of France’s centralised system in dealing with covid-19 in @TheEconomist is free to read here https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/04/04/frances-napoleonic-approach-to-covid-19 6/6