Read on Twitter
This is long thread on PM’s money whitening scheme known as #constructionpackage. It doesn’t analyze the package but just sets the stage for analyzing the environment in which it is presented. Please don’t read it if you rather read optimistic stuff.
We don’t get much coverage of such news, but using those that we get, DESCON cutting salaries of employees by 30%. A blue chip Pakistani industrial firm. https://newztodays.com/descon-announces-pay-cuts-up-to-30/">https://newztodays.com/descon-an...
Descon should be amongst those entities that have work. They won the Rs.300 billion Mohmand Dam project despite conflict of interest https://tribune.com.pk/story/1879191/2-company-owned-government-adviser-set-win-mohmand-dam-contract/?amp=1">https://tribune.com.pk/story/187...
In health care, Peshawar Northwest, one of the largest private hospital in Peshawar halved their wage bills despite getting a lot of business over the last years from Sehat Insaf card
Private and government hospitals cutting pay of the front line staff in Sind from 10% to 50% https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1246288955219329025">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
Textile sector, retail sector has already laid off staff. Hospitality has also been hit. Plus there will be affiliated upstream and downstream sectors that would have been affected. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2182602/1-five-star-hotels-lay-off-staff-business-plunges/?amp=1">https://tribune.com.pk/story/218...
LSM and credit to private sector was already decreasing due to one trick pony’s one trick of attracting hot money
universities have massive cuts in funding. One may find other stuff but you get the point.
Thus the situation of both middle income and low income is precarious https://www.dawn.com/news/1522022 ">https://www.dawn.com/news/1522...
Thus the situation of both middle income and low income is precarious https://www.dawn.com/news/1522022 ">https://www.dawn.com/news/1522...
But that’s just local. Lots of expats work in Middle East and western countries. Those in welfare states aren’t worst off but those in US and Middle East have no safety net.
This is Al Shaya largest and strongest retailer of Middle East with 60K workforce saying revenues down 95% and staff should expect to hear from HR this week. Things aren’t different in other areas. https://twitter.com/alkulaib/status/1245048417505738757">https://twitter.com/alkulaib/...
Thus income wise, things aren’t rosy for low income and middle income professionals.
Let’s move to their savings. DHA Valley ripped off locals, martyrs’ families and expats. In Dubai alone had 6000 investors that have been scammed by DHA of their savings. https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1145792877487886343">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
Let’s move to their savings. DHA Valley ripped off locals, martyrs’ families and expats. In Dubai alone had 6000 investors that have been scammed by DHA of their savings. https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1145792877487886343">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
Fazaia scammed thousands of local and overseas Pakistanis out of their lifetime savings
“Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is known to work with precision and Fazaia Housing Scheme in Karachi is a manifestation of that” PAF Air Marshal https://twitter.com/dunyakkks/status/1217896643397398531">https://twitter.com/dunyakkks...
“Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is known to work with precision and Fazaia Housing Scheme in Karachi is a manifestation of that” PAF Air Marshal https://twitter.com/dunyakkks/status/1217896643397398531">https://twitter.com/dunyakkks...
Finally Bahria Town Karachi. Every middle eastern and Europe based expat I know has invested his savings in Bahria Town Karachi. None of them have less than two plots, one to sell and use the proceeds to build a home when they come back. For some this is all their savings.
To summarize, due to the Corona situation, not only the income situation of Pakistanis locally and internationally is precarious but quite a lot of them have been looted out of their savings in DHA Valley, Fazaia, Bahria and similar schemes.
Now coming to the most social media and photoshop savvy government of Pakistan who has its faith in big data, analytics, and internet despite having such industrial maestros as Razzak Dawood and Asad Umar on board.
Couldn’t launch a simple diaspora bond. All that was needed was tech and some SOPs. https://medium.com/@REInvestor/how-not-to-launch-a-diaspora-bond-11d28d968874">https://medium.com/@REInvest...
Naya Pakistan Housing which was nothing but a rebranding exercise. Do read the medium article in the thread https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1214040402669510657">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
This one is a short thread but eye opener if they aren’t already opened https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1240872359269105666">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
This thread has the back of the envelope number calculations and charts by me just to give an idea that at least I have thought about it https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1154460557426221066">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
One of my threads on how no homework is done in signing the much celebrated China FTA phase II
If you rather read a blog https://medium.com/@REInvestor/the-pak-china-free-trade-agreement-will-result-in-current-account-deficit-f29dc10d3433">https://medium.com/@REInvest... and those ribbon cutting of SEZs by PM https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1215105852409028612">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
If you rather read a blog https://medium.com/@REInvestor/the-pak-china-free-trade-agreement-will-result-in-current-account-deficit-f29dc10d3433">https://medium.com/@REInvest... and those ribbon cutting of SEZs by PM https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1215105852409028612">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
Udher RD moonh ki firing kar raha hai k exports 30x increase ho gi due to CFTA, idher FPCCI chairman saying it won’t yield much as we don’t manufacture much https://tribune.com.pk/story/2141116/2-pakistans-free-trade-deal-china-unlikely-yield-much/?amp=1">https://tribune.com.pk/story/214...
Let’s not talk about Peshawar BRT. But you get the drift. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/05/22/the-embarrassing-tale-of-kps-tameer-e-school-programme/">https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/05/2...
And when it is asked that why our desi Park Chung and Lee Yuan Kew can’t deliver, the answer is that all magnates are rent seekers. Now whereas his fans think of his road construction as FDResque, it’s Reaganomics and Clintonesque.
To summarize again:
1. Income of Pakistanis uncertain
2. Significant savings already wiped out
3. State that doesn’t want responsibility or wants to build capacity (it’s rhetoric is fine though)
1. Income of Pakistanis uncertain
2. Significant savings already wiped out
3. State that doesn’t want responsibility or wants to build capacity (it’s rhetoric is fine though)
The new strategy is to allow (instead of rent seekers) black money holders to embark on a large scale residential construction program that will lead to shelter and jobs for lower and middle income. This out-of-box thinking comes out of whatsapp group with IIW, AU, Hammad Azhar
Who will the money launderers build for? The middle income don’t have any savings to buy outright. They won’t be able to afford anything at current 14-17% mortgage rate. When times were good, banks didn’t offer them mortgages. Why would they offer middle income any now?
The belief is that Aleem Khan etc will engage in high rise construction. This will generate jobs for low skilled workers and some white collar workers. Unless Aleem Khan is building for his employees or the employees of suppliers, who will save from him (trickle down economics)
or the suppliers who earn some income supplying to him, and then he plans to lend them money for 15-25 years, (no middle income will have the capacity to buy outright during this time), this is a non starter plan.
Or may be AKD and Arif Habib plan to build for high income and rich families who don’t need mortgages. Rich people are not in the business of renting. They are in the business of flipping to next rich person.
Or may be there is a plan of having REITs where all these philanthropic developers will middle income towers, let out the apartments on rent to middle income people and then do an IPO of the REIT to recoup their investment.
I am not a prophet so I don’t know what is the real plan. But based on my reading of situation, the package won’t deliver much. Negligible affordable apartments may be delivered to get the PM to cut the ribbons and his social media force to start a campaign.
Unless state increases capacity, intellectual as well as technical delivery, federal backstops to mortgages and development, not much will be delivered. But this is what you have when it comes to increasing state capacity https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1105493707917209600">https://twitter.com/2paisay/s...
