Thread by @Comparativist, I interviewed IRRI directors, camped out at the PhilRice dorms for weeks [...]

I interviewed IRRI directors, camped out at the PhilRice dorms for weeks at a time, visited farmer field schools, reading the gloomiest FAO scenarios, for my PhD fieldwork. No one ever contemplated something like this.

Thread https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246652841265000449

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246652841265000449

The program I studied was a response to a 2008 commodity price hike. Food prices shot up across the globe so Gates Foundation, CGIAR, & FAO used it as an opportunity to make a Green Rev 2.0 push. They were sending Africans to the Philippines to learn how to grow wet paddy rice

That 2008 price hike was likely caused by a mix of financial speculation and the rush to turn crops into biofuels. It turns out that food is more JIT (just in time) than you’d think. Supply is usually *just* keeping up with demand and temporary shocks can shoot prices up 20-30%.

The conclusion of my thesis was that those institutions and governments simply had different interests and incentives vs farmers when it came to the idea of X “self-sufficiency.” Farmers and food producers, like everyone, want the biggest returns for the least risk.

In short, the ‘problem’ of food self-sufficiency wasn’t a problem... or not one that could be fixed by education. The reason a place like the Philippines isn’t rice self-sufficient is comparative advantage: in many contexts, it’s a lot more profitable to grow coconuts for export.

It’s palm oil in Indonesia and flowers in Kenya. So long as places like Thailand and Vietnam have huge rice exports, it works! Governments might not like spending forex on food imports, but everyone [mostly] gets what they need across the globe.

Basically, no one thinks HK should be food self-sufficient because it’s obvious that converting office complexes here to farms is ridiculous. I argued it’s the same for export-oriented farmers! They did the math!

Not even the worst global warming projections for 2030+ anticipated a scenario like I think we’re about to face: an L-shaped supply shock in the span of months with the food supply chain getting crippled at every stage. Both domestic and internationally.

I am fucking terrified.

My thesis title was The Crisis Machine. I was accusing those institutions of ginning up Malthusian moral panics to stay relevant and funded. It was an entire cottage industry of writing reports about how close to widespread hunger the world was.

None of them predicted this. https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246661824876908544

https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246661824876908544

The good news for now is that FAO thinks global food prices have been falling. Watch this space. Their Food Price Index will be first alarm bell to go off if/when there’s a supply shock as big as I fear.

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

OK, more potential good news: FAO economists say biofuel demand (sugars, maize, vegetable oils) has collapsed with oil prices dropping 50%. Most of the crops grown to replace petroleum are now going on the market as food.

http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1269050/icode/

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1246671231429967872?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246671231429967872

It’s similar to prob with global PPE gear distribution. As soon as a country goes on lockdown, their first priority is making sure their own inventories stays supplied. It’s every country for themselves. Caixin just wrote about it
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-04-02/multiple-countries-ban-food-exports-as-demand-spikes-fuel-shortage-fears-101538002.html
https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1246663262889889792?s=21 https://twitter.com/benbenchia/status/1246663262889889792

IMO, this is not a crazy scenario. A cruise ship just had to sail from Tierra del Fuego to Miami via the Panama Canal because no other port would take it. A USN carrier captain was just fired for publicly saying he needed to get his sailors off the ship.
https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1246702423441170432?s=21 https://twitter.com/Comparativist/status/1246702423441170432

https://twitter.com/comparativist/status/1246702423441170432?s=21

America is 13% of the world’s wheat exports and 38% of maize.
https://twitter.com/mags_mclaugh/status/1246541845955575808?s=21 https://twitter.com/mags_mclaugh/status/1246541845955575808

https://twitter.com/mags_mclaugh/status/1246541845955575808?s=21

the things either crippling, or about to cripple, the global food supply sys are coming from many directions. Most are related to poorly executed hard lockdowns. There's second order effects like possible chem input shortages. Then black swan possiblies like a shipping shutdown. https://twitter.com/the_lagrangian/status/1246813341189840897

https://twitter.com/the_lagrangian/status/1246813341189840897

My step father just got laid off because the mattress factory shut down (he was VP of sales). What happens if fertilizer, pesticide, and herbicide plants close? What happens if they get made but can't ship or get stuck at ports? Farms can't switch to organic overnight.

“We’re not used to the supply chain breaking down... that’s my biggest concern.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/farmers-are-dumping-milk-in-latest-blow-to-battered-u-s-dairy?utm_content=asia&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-asia&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Farmers Dump Milk in Latest Blow to Battered U.S. Dairy

With milk prices plunging to lows that haven’t been seen in nearly four years, dairy cooperatives are dumping the product to curb an oversupply.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/farmers-are-dumping-milk-in-latest-blow-to-battered-u-s-dairy?utm_content=asia&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-asia&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Kenya
https://twitter.com/annesoy/status/1246517766838005760?s=21 https://twitter.com/annesoy/status/1246517766838005760

https://twitter.com/annesoy/status/1246517766838005760?s=21

Syria https://twitter.com/elizrael/status/1238201398325587968?s=21 https://twitter.com/elizrael/status/1238201398325587968

https://twitter.com/elizrael/status/1238201398325587968?s=21

Now add locust swarms https://twitter.com/samirasawlani/status/1247776256050909184?s=19

https://twitter.com/samirasawlani/status/1247776256050909184?s=19

“Even if coronavirus were to magically disappear tomorrow, it would still takes weeks if not longer for supply chains to get moving again, and probably months before you felt like things were normal again.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/business/economy/global-trade-shortages-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

Global Trade Sputters, Leaving Too Much Here, Too Little There

As the pandemic stretches on, consumers and businesses could run short of some products in months to come.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/business/economy/global-trade-shortages-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

India

https://twitter.com/jayantbhandari5/status/1248499505311305734?s=21 https://twitter.com/jayantbhandari5/status/1248499505311305734