Another Italian update: it is now clear that the peak (as judged by sympom-onset) is stable somewhere in the 10-15 March area (dark bars), and has been stable since around 22 March.

We should be able to work backwards to likely infection peak /1
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_4aprile%20ENG.pdf">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/corona...

... and forwards to peak mortality, peak recoveries (making all kinds of assumptions) and, particularly as the %+ve is steadily falling in the tests: hopefully the end is in sight. /2

... see excellent detailed localised testing data from @MicheleZanini https://twitter.com/MicheleZanini/status/1246514443799932935?s=20">https://twitter.com/MicheleZa... /3

... and regional data (incl Lombardia as a whole) at /4

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_2-aprile-2020_appendix.pdf">https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavir...