1/ I called the Italian peak 12 days ago; in retrospect, that was about 5 days early. In any case, Italy has now peaked; Spain probably has too (remember, deaths LAG). The final Italian toll will probably be in the range of the 25-45,000 excess deaths of the 2016/17 flu season...
2/ Here’s a peer-reviewed paper in Italian flu mortality from 2014-2017 - the numbers are pretty brutal. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
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