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Incumbent effect + rally round the flag + affective partisan polarisation + an uninspiring opponent + the EC = Trump win in November.
Am I wrong?
Am I wrong?
The correct answer, for those who are still wondering, is, of course, that am I not wrong. That is all. Thank you for coming to my Ted talk. I will not be taking any more questions at this time.
Seeing a lot of wishful thinking in the replies. Many such cases, sad! Trump has a number of structural advantages in his favour, if he is to lose it will be because of contingent factors that we cannot predict, if you are a betting man you trust the former more than the latter.
Tempted to put some money down for Trump to win in November and Josh Hawley to win in 2024.
Some would say the same for the Tories here but John ofc would disagree. Why? bc John is a Tory partisan. Same applies to America but times a million. Republicans vote for Republicans. Democrats for Democrats. So it will boil down to other factors. https://twitter.com/jfwduffield/status/1246526146210136065?s=20
Is there any great enthusiasm for his likely opponent in November?
No. https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1244112969027420161?s=20
No. https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1244112969027420161?s=20
Can you really blame ppl for this lack of enthusiasm? Not really, no https://twitter.com/shoe0nhead/status/1245937103999041537?s=20
Is there any sign that C-19 is negatively impacting Trumpâs poll rating thus far?
No
Everywhere, around the world we are seeing a ârallying round the flag.â
Not just Trump. Johnson. Sunak. Macron. Merkel. Conte. The leaders of Sweden, Norway and Denmark likewise.
No
Everywhere, around the world we are seeing a ârallying round the flag.â
Not just Trump. Johnson. Sunak. Macron. Merkel. Conte. The leaders of Sweden, Norway and Denmark likewise.
Everything is in DJTâs favour to be re-elected in other words. The man is a loose cannon & more than capable of messing it up, ofc. But if you are a betting man, you bet on the incumbent with a ârallying round the flagâ effect boosting his poll noâs vs the uninspiring alternative
This thread from PR is very much worth reading and echoes my own thoughts on the subject, this tweet in particular hits the nail on the head https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1246801855566446593?s=20
