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Ok, here is my problem with @ICMR numbers, According to a recent @TheLancet paper, the mortality rate of COVID-19 in China for symptomatic cases was 1.38%, if we compare it with India the numbers don't add up https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
With this rate and 77 deaths,the number of symptomatic cases should have been around 5600, we have only identified 3076. But wait, there is more
At present with 77 deaths, fatality rate in India is much much higher at 2.5%, the @TheLancet study also found out that 1.8% case fatality was valid for symptomatic cases only, which means we could be missing thousands of more asymptomatic cases
The @TheLancet study estimated that with asymptomatic and mild cases which tend to go under the radar, the fatality rate of COVID-19 is reduced to 0.66℅ Here is our report on this https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/coronavirus-covid-19-lancet-study-1662532-2020-04-02
This further means that with 77 deaths and 0.66℅ mortality rate, India should have 11500 cases at this moment, of which a large chunk would be asymptomatic (freshly infected and low viral load)
I hope this is wrong, but I don't see how, even modest estimations would at least double the original figures, which would only multiply in coming days once lockdown ends
I just hope that with new testing guidelines announced by @ICMRDELHI the rate of testing and hence identification will improve rapidly in next few days
