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Here is a look at Trump approval and November vote in Wisconsin. First, vote by approval with row percentages. Of those who strongly approve of Trump, 3% vote Biden 96% vote Trump and under 1%, .83%, say neither or DK. Compare ... 1/12
Compare strong disapprove: 92% Biden, 2% Trump and 7% (5.28+1.32=6.6%) say neither or DK. This group doesn't consider Trump but a goodly few would consider not supporting Biden. What about the "somewhats?" 2/12
The vote for somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove are fairly symmetric. 18-73 and 74-14, with 9% and 11% neither or DK. The neither/dk group should be a bit high in both reflecting the ambiguous Trump approval. 3/12
With the Dem nomination not yet settled and 32% backing Sanders in the latest @MULawPoll, the higher Neither/DK among strong disapprovers may be unsurprising, and might be expected to shift to Biden as the party unifies around the nominee. 4/12
The implications of this for the eventual vote depends on the size of each group, so let's switch the table to one showing the cell percentages, that is the percent of the total sample in each cell of the table. 5/12
Of the total electorate 33% (32.71%) are strong approvers who say they'll vote for Trump. 38% are strong disapprovers who vote for Biden. We might consider these the "base of the base." And puzzle over the 1% who strongly approve but go Biden or.65% str disapp going Trump. 6/12
While "somewhats" split symmetrically in the row pct table above there are more somewhat approve than somewhat disapprove. Trump picks up 10% of total vote from some app, Biden half that from some disapp. Biden adds 2.48% from some app, Trump gets 1% from some disapp 7/12
Add that up and we have 46.69% Biden and 44.63% Trump, with 8.68% still on the sidelines. .92% didn't give an opinion of Trump approval but said they'd vote Biden and .54% said they've vote Trump, so add this in to get 47.61% Biden and 45.17% Trump. Who is left? 8/12
Of the vote neither, DK or Ref, .41% are strong approvers we'd think vote for Trump. 1.3% are somewhat approvers likely to mostly vote Trump. .82% are somewhat dissapps likely mostly Biden. And finally the 2.9% who strongly disapprove of Trump but don't yet support Biden. 9/12
I'm skipping the DK/Ref approval AND neither, DK,Ref vote. The are 1.78% of total but give few clues on preference or if they will vote. 10/12
I invite you to consider how you think the neither/dk/ref groups might split & what that would do to the final total for each candidate. This is a game for shut-ins among us (ie everyone can play) since vote forecasts today are amusing but we can't know what fall may hold 11/12
Data detail: These data are from the pooled Jan-Feb-Mar @MULawPoll of Wisconsin registered voters, n=2,613. Trump's approval was 48-49, 48-48 and 48-49 in the months, and Biden v Trump is 48-45 in all three months pooled and in the March poll. So not much change <;-) 12/12
