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Here is a look at Trump approval and November vote in Wisconsin. First, vote by approval with row percentages. Of those who strongly approve of Trump, 3% vote Biden 96% vote Trump and under 1%, .83%, say neither or DK. Compare ... 1/12
Compare strong disapprove: 92% Biden, 2% Trump and 7% (5.28+1.32=6.6%) say neither or DK. This group doesn& #39;t consider Trump but a goodly few would consider not supporting Biden. What about the "somewhats?" 2/12
The vote for somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove are fairly symmetric. 18-73 and 74-14, with 9% and 11% neither or DK. The neither/dk group should be a bit high in both reflecting the ambiguous Trump approval. 3/12
With the Dem nomination not yet settled and 32% backing Sanders in the latest @MULawPoll, the higher Neither/DK among strong disapprovers may be unsurprising, and might be expected to shift to Biden as the party unifies around the nominee. 4/12
The implications of this for the eventual vote depends on the size of each group, so let& #39;s switch the table to one showing the cell percentages, that is the percent of the total sample in each cell of the table. 5/12
Of the total electorate 33% (32.71%) are strong approvers who say they& #39;ll vote for Trump. 38% are strong disapprovers who vote for Biden. We might consider these the "base of the base." And puzzle over the 1% who strongly approve but go Biden or.65% str disapp going Trump. 6/12
While "somewhats" split symmetrically in the row pct table above there are more somewhat approve than somewhat disapprove. Trump picks up 10% of total vote from some app, Biden half that from some disapp. Biden adds 2.48% from some app, Trump gets 1% from some disapp 7/12
Add that up and we have 46.69% Biden and 44.63% Trump, with 8.68% still on the sidelines. .92% didn& #39;t give an opinion of Trump approval but said they& #39;d vote Biden and .54% said they& #39;ve vote Trump, so add this in to get 47.61% Biden and 45.17% Trump. Who is left? 8/12
Of the vote neither, DK or Ref, .41% are strong approvers we& #39;d think vote for Trump. 1.3% are somewhat approvers likely to mostly vote Trump. .82% are somewhat dissapps likely mostly Biden. And finally the 2.9% who strongly disapprove of Trump but don& #39;t yet support Biden. 9/12
I& #39;m skipping the DK/Ref approval AND neither, DK,Ref vote. The are 1.78% of total but give few clues on preference or if they will vote. 10/12
I invite you to consider how you think the neither/dk/ref groups might split & what that would do to the final total for each candidate. This is a game for shut-ins among us (ie everyone can play) since vote forecasts today are amusing but we can& #39;t know what fall may hold 11/12
Data detail: These data are from the pooled Jan-Feb-Mar @MULawPoll of Wisconsin registered voters, n=2,613. Trump& #39;s approval was 48-49, 48-48 and 48-49 in the months, and Biden v Trump is 48-45 in all three months pooled and in the March poll. So not much change <;-) 12/12
