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Our public health officials are doing the best they can. Not faulting the effort. But sometimes they seem to be too academic, and lack common sense. They have made a lot of mistakes along the way too. Far from perfect. Not the time to look back, only forward. But I worry
they continue to get hung up in the details. Perfection is often the enemy of good or sufficient. For example, they should have had people wearing masks long ago. No downside, probably helps. But the amount of cycles and time they need to go through to get there, beyond me.
Latest is FDA is holding up hand sanitizer shipments from the guys that make booze because they want to certify all of it. Who cares, once something has 65%-70% ethyl alcohol in it, it works. Not complex. Let it go!
Anyway here is another big picture idea.
Anyway here is another big picture idea.
One of the big problems with the “modelling” exercise is nobody knows what the denominator is. It is beyond me why they are not doing random sampling. Seems to me like taking a few thousand random samples in several places might tell you a lot. A highly infected area like NY,
a middle infected area, and a low infected area. Hopefully with the anti-body test as well. Few thousand people at a time seems to do an OK job getting close to election results and other things of that nature. Feels like it might give them a decent feel for how many people
actually have it, or already have had it.
What if it is true that 50% of people are asymptomatic carriers? What if it is true that is far more pervasive than we realize, and therefore mortality rate is lower, we are closer to the finish line, and more people may have immunity
What if it is true that 50% of people are asymptomatic carriers? What if it is true that is far more pervasive than we realize, and therefore mortality rate is lower, we are closer to the finish line, and more people may have immunity
and can get back to work?
Again not perfect. It wont be perfectly right to 99.9999% degree of accuracy. Who cares. Should be close enough to give them some directional information that they don’t already have……
Again not perfect. It wont be perfectly right to 99.9999% degree of accuracy. Who cares. Should be close enough to give them some directional information that they don’t already have……
