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This is odd...
The COVID deaths are pneumonia deaths:
But, pneumonia deaths are DOWN.
About 10,000 less deaths as of week 12!
This means there is no COVID crisis!
It means behaviour change from COVID scare alone was already enough to save lives.
It means no gov action needed!
The COVID deaths are pneumonia deaths:
But, pneumonia deaths are DOWN.
About 10,000 less deaths as of week 12!
This means there is no COVID crisis!
It means behaviour change from COVID scare alone was already enough to save lives.
It means no gov action needed!
Now- To speculate Wildly!!!
Here is what I think is going to happen.
This first graph is a guess about the 2020 trend, with a guess about COVID added to it.
This is pneumonia deaths per week.
(The second graph will be the same guess, but total deaths compared to other years)
Here is what I think is going to happen.
This first graph is a guess about the 2020 trend, with a guess about COVID added to it.
This is pneumonia deaths per week.
(The second graph will be the same guess, but total deaths compared to other years)
Now, for perspective
Here's that same guess, but added up as Total Deaths compared to other years.
The interesting part is:
Even with the huge spike, the total deaths are really about the same as any other year.
"Crisis"?
Close everything?
Print $2T?
I don't think so.
Here's that same guess, but added up as Total Deaths compared to other years.
The interesting part is:
Even with the huge spike, the total deaths are really about the same as any other year.
"Crisis"?
Close everything?
Print $2T?
I don't think so.
Here is an example of what the US death count would be if we had 60k covid deaths in 2019.
Pretty scary!
Better shut down the economy, lock people in their homes, and print $6 Trillion!
Pretty scary!
Better shut down the economy, lock people in their homes, and print $6 Trillion!
According to this study by Google...
Voluntary social distancing is responsible for the decrease in virus spread.
And government Lockdown policies don’t actually decrease virus spread.
Link to pdf here
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=751119001100096004091095066011069006034048031046008017077069064006068118100127074022058117006035008099001116098030111081125091106078039042042127115083116006005031086033030046005109075116118005087094125090027001079120004090071088119022011120005078103029&EXT=pdf
Voluntary social distancing is responsible for the decrease in virus spread.
And government Lockdown policies don’t actually decrease virus spread.
Link to pdf here
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=751119001100096004091095066011069006034048031046008017077069064006068118100127074022058117006035008099001116098030111081125091106078039042042127115083116006005031086033030046005109075116118005087094125090027001079120004090071088119022011120005078103029&EXT=pdf
