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My view on the OPEC++ oil production cut:

1- Production base matters: April Vs. Q1

2- Counting shut-ins vs additional cut matters

3- Duration of the cut matters: The longer it is, the more bullish toward yearend and next year.
#oil #OPEC #COVID19

4- If it is only for two months, the impact is very limited, if any. After all, the cut is actually unsold oil. In other words, virtually, market balances are the same with a cut or without.

5- Date of implementation n matters. A delay in Aramco OSP, which many analysts expect, until after the OPEC++ meeting indicates that the cut might start in May. Therefore, we have April oil deliveries in May to deal with.

6- The impact of any "actual" cut is in medium & long terms: oil inventories will be lower than what is currently expected. Regardless, global oil storage will not reach maximum capacity for several reasons. But regionally we might reach maximum capacity, affecting differentials

7- But again, what is mentioned in #6 above would have happened anyway because of unsold oil and shut-ins. While there could be some political gains for some countries and individuals from the deal, the positive economic impact compared to "no-deal" is limited.