The national models project that America might have 100,000 to 250,000 deaths from COVID-19 if everyone social distances. Mississippi represents about 1% of the US population. That means, if it hit everyone equally, Mississippi would expect 1,000 to 2,500 deaths.

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But consider this: New Orleans has a death rate that is 7X New York’s. Why? The demographics are different. If you are less healthy to begin with, this virus can be more serious and deadly. Mississippi’s population looks a lot more like Louisiana than New York.

We are #2 in obesity. In diabetics, we are #3. Hypertension #4, smokers #6. We have risks that other parts of the country just don’t. We are already seeing that MS has a very high hospitalization per case rate compared to other states.

We have advantages. We’re more spread out. We’ve done much more testing than others. We’ve gathered and studied the data. We have great health care workers. Our emergency managers are 2nd to none.

We had a pandemic plan and we’ve followed it. We didn’t have to scramble; we were able to be methodical in ramping things up. It hasn’t hit us hard yet, but it will.

All of those models assume people will socially distance and shelter in place. We are trying to prevent the health care system from being overloaded. If you could survive with quality care, we need you to get that care. That is what all of this is for.

I don’t say this to make you panic, but we all need a healthy, educated respect of this powerful enemy. It is real. It is deadly. And Mississippi is uniquely threatened. Please be smart, stay home, and take care of your neighbors.

We will get our economy rolling again. There are people whose lives and livelihoods are as threatened by the national economic damage as any disease. We will protect you too, to the best of our ability. We also have to take this virus very, very seriously.

We’re getting together on Facebook Live this afternoon at 4:00 to share stories of Mississippi’s resilience and even joy in this scary time. You’re welcome to join us! We are going to make it through this by looking out for one another. We are going to get through. God bless.