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1/ Looking for some good news in the Coronavirus data for my fellow residents in the Pittsburgh area. Not to diminish the serious data. So far we have had two deaths in Allegheny County. There have been no additional reported deaths in 16 days.
Let's look at more data...
Let's look at more data...
2/ There are many models, but the IMHE projections are widely used.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can sort to see the PA data but I'll share some screen grabs in this thread.
It project peak use of resources in Pennsylvania to come on April 18. 14 days away.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can sort to see the PA data but I'll share some screen grabs in this thread.
It project peak use of resources in Pennsylvania to come on April 18. 14 days away.
3/ On April 18, the IMHE projects we will need 7,428 beds on that day. Pennsylvania will have twice that available. 14,395 beds. For ICU beds we will need 1,130 beds. We have almost that many. The peak day need for ventilators - 904. So how many ventilators do we have...
4/ That was a little trickier to find because some hospital systems aren't releasing those numbers exactly.
New article today:
https://bit.ly/2xQTgzi
It says there are 4,000 ventilators available across PA. So -- four times the projected peak need in PA.
New article today:
https://bit.ly/2xQTgzi
It says there are 4,000 ventilators available across PA. So -- four times the projected peak need in PA.
5/ Side note on peak ventilator need. The overall projection by the IMHE for ventilator need across the U.S. is 31,782. That is for the peak national day in 12 days on April 15.
https://bit.ly/2JFuche
That link from the Society of Critical Care Medicine shows this...
https://bit.ly/2JFuche
That link from the Society of Critical Care Medicine shows this...
6/ "U.S. acute care hospitals are estimated to own 62,000 full-featured mechanical ventilators."
So twice the number needed at the projected peak resource day.
More good news from the SCCM. The hospitals have another 98,738 older and less full-featured units.
So twice the number needed at the projected peak resource day.
More good news from the SCCM. The hospitals have another 98,738 older and less full-featured units.
7/ Now -- I'm not a medical expert! I'm sure there are many complicating factors of personnel, training, sanitizing, repairing.
I just wanted to check out the basic resource count versus the projections.
The IMHE model may end up being wrong. High or low.
I just wanted to check out the basic resource count versus the projections.
The IMHE model may end up being wrong. High or low.
8/ Right now the model is projecting 2,023 total deaths in Pennsylvania through August 4th. And it assumes continued social distancing.
The worst day for PA would be April 19 when 79 people could die across the state.
One other thing to remember...
The worst day for PA would be April 19 when 79 people could die across the state.
One other thing to remember...
9/ The two deaths in Allegheny County, the last being on March 19th, came before the current stay at home order here. Because of the lag from exposure to symptoms to complications, that is also true for many of the cases we are currently seeing.
10/ We will only just be starting to see the data on the effect of the stay at home order. We've been under it longer here in Allegheny County.
The "no new deaths in the last 16 days" would not be because of the current stay at home. Is that logic right?
The "no new deaths in the last 16 days" would not be because of the current stay at home. Is that logic right?
11/ Because of the lag from exposure to symptoms to complication...the we would just be starting to see the benefits of the current stay at home. Correct?
Maybe it will be very beneficial.
I'm just an old reporter who likes to ask questions and look at data!
Maybe it will be very beneficial.
I'm just an old reporter who likes to ask questions and look at data!
12/ I'm wide open to other insights on this.
None of this is an argument for any particular policy or side.
This is day 22 at home for my family and I just wanted to look for some hope!
And we're all pulling and praying for the great medical professionals of Pittsburgh.
None of this is an argument for any particular policy or side.
This is day 22 at home for my family and I just wanted to look for some hope!
And we're all pulling and praying for the great medical professionals of Pittsburgh.
13/ Shortly after I posted this thread the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette did report a third death in Allegheny County.
"The latest death was an individual in their 90s who had been hospitalized." https://bit.ly/3bRMYhy
"The latest death was an individual in their 90s who had been hospitalized." https://bit.ly/3bRMYhy
