I hope this sentiment is right, but I don't think it is. Covid is the defining event of this generation, whose impact will be felt long after. 1/ https://twitter.com/ArthurB/status/1246417495155712000

Half the global population is under some form of movement restriction. This is unprecedented and will be part of the collective memory for a long time 2/

Eliminating covid could take decades. It may persist in slums and low income communities in the global south, threatening to strike high income countries. If mutation limits the vaccine half life, there could be permanent changes to travel and socialization patterns 3/

Covid has laid bare the lack of global leadership. US hegemony has been waning for decades. This is the nail in the coffin. Longer term implications of the retreat of pax Americana include outbreaks of regional battles for hegemony 4/

The EU will never be the same. Covid has exposed it's inadequacy in dealing with new shocks. It will likely limp along, but never have the same level of buy in from member states 5/

The extended lock down will bring down dozens of governments. Within two months there will be wide-scale civil unrest throughout the global south as people go hungry. High income countries are more insulated, but hardly immune 6/

The failure of the WHO will cause it to lose funding. Other international organizations, including the UN and WTO, will fall under similar suspicions. The lack of global institutions means the discussion around climate change will shift from prevention to mitigation 7/

The failure of public health institutions in the west will cause distrust in institutions more generally. There will be valiant attempts to build better institutions, but they will likely fail. Existing challenges, stagnation, income inequality will worsen 8/

I hope I'm wrong, but the long term effects need to be taken seriously to mitigate the worst of them 9/9