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THREAD: some thoughts while I stay indoors on AA comments about pausing #HS2 and the wider rail use outlook post- #coronavirus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52137968
In rail, traditional 9 to 5 commute value season ticket has already been in sharp decline for several years, see @railandroad data. Crucially, this did not lead to overall decline in rail use https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/statistics/usage/passenger-rail-usage/
Flexible working was leading to more and longer rail journeys to partly replace 9 to 5 grind. This trend did *not* start with the coronavirus crisis, though may be fair assumption that crisis will accelerate it
Rail industry fares reform already in motion to rejig ticketing to reflect these trends, including development of part time season tickets https://www.railwaygazette.com/passenger/root-and-branch-reform-of-uk-rail-fares-proposed/46411.article
HS2 is one large part of bigger rail capacity issue. It is by definition a long term project. Can we seriously be confident that rail use will be less after 2030? No we cannot. Here's why: modal shift
Transport remains is one of core sources of GHG emissions, but recent UK govts have barely ever actually advocated modal shift from road and air to more sustainable options. Modal shift also means demand for these modes can grow even if overall travel flattens
To put in context, the entire CO2 output related to construction of Phase 1 of HS2 equates to just three weeks of UK road transport GHG emissions
Consider also that rail fares have gone up by more than inflation almost every year for the past decade, while fuel duty has been frozen since 2010. This freeze has cost the exchequer almost £50bn (!)
But overall rail use has climbed steadily throughout that period, despite a de facto govt policy to price people off trains. This discrepancy will almost certainly have to be looked at post-crisis
But for modal shift to work and climate goals to be met, our networks and infrastructure must be capable of handling the extra traffic. Can rail do that? Unequivocally no, hence whole reason why HS2 is going ahead
Remember that HS2 essentially *transfers* existing inter-city rail market to dedicated infrastructure. It is *not* about magicking up 15m new people who really want to go to Brum!
Most new rail use will come on the existing railway, which can be run in a more homogenous way. A huge gain would be new links between towns on existing main lines where today, London expresses just sail through
But there is also a big opportunity for rail freight, which is showing its value during #coronavirus by keeping logistics chains moving. Freight cannot be shipped via Zoom or Houseparty apps remember!
Rail freight has struggled in recent years as bulk cargo like coal has disappeared from network. But future is promising as freight trains adapt to serve urban logistics hubs and behave more like passenger services
Return of the 'mixed train' has even been mooted, where pax and freight consignments are carried on same service. Could be a winner if commuter behaviour does change markedly. These trains would still need paths created on existing lines by HS2
There are some examples of future rail freight out there. The mail trains run by @DBCargoUK between London and Glasgow are an under-appreciated case, using 100 mile/h electric trains derived from passenger design. Could this approach carry online shopping in future?
To conclude, debating possible post-Covid transport mix is useful and helpful. Binning off long term infra projects needed to provide jobs, mitigate climate change and deliver modal shift would be self-defeating and harmful! ENDS
