1/ Another, more telling video of #CaptainCrozier disembarking his ship. As you can see, his crew is clearly shaken and has no confidence in him.

This will have repercussions for our @DeptofDefense. A few thoughts:

2/ Big caveat: while I obviously have my opinion, I could be wrong about some fact that isn’t getting reported.

Honestly, what really happened doesn’t matter. Perceptions matter, and the perception in this situation is that #CaptainCrozier was railroaded.

3/ I lived through another military scandal, albeit one that got much less attention. There, sustained inattention and willful lack of resourcing led to an accident that killed 4 airmen. It was covered well by @MarkThompson_DC. https://swampland.time.com/2013/10/30/the-crash-of-independence-08/

4/ I loosely tracked retention in the MC-12 after. 90% of enlisted members and 85% of officers (who each averaged ~$5M training cost... nbd) left the service w/in 2 years. We’re talking hundreds of people gone, easily an $800M+ loss of investment.
3 other things happened though:

5/ First, senior leadership (above wing) did their best to ignore the findings of the safety report or the black-swan destruction they’d wrought on the organization. No one was held accountable.

6/ Second, the disaffection spread throughout the Air Force. To this day, when I tell people I was in the MC-12 program and I get knowing looks of “Oh, you lived through the meat grinder and stayed?” I’m talking people who weren’t even in the @usairforce at the time.

7/ Third, and most positively, I’ve observed those of us who stayed and are now O-5’s and 6’s absolutely don’t GAF what senior leaders think. We’ll tell them when they’re naked and we very quickly judge them based on their response.

8/ Aside: I’ve met substantially all the AF 4 stars and most of the 3 stars over the last three years. They generally appreciate truth tellers. If you say what you feel, based on balanced thought, reason and research you’ll be heard. This stuff is caused by the 1 or 2 bastards.

9/ Eg: The Pilot Training Next Project somehow ended up with a ton of MC-12 alum. We never planned it that way, we just flocked around an opportunity for positive change. We were successful because we had a strong independent steak. https://americanhomefront.wunc.org/post/these-air-force-trainees-spend-less-time-cockpit-more-time-flight-simulators

10/ The bad news: the @USNavy has done the @DeptofDefense some real harm. This will hurt retention meaningfully. Hardly anyone will track it (we intentionally don’t study these things), no one will report on it and certainly no one will be held accountable... except...

11/ If infection rates on the TR are as bad as reported, this story will grow bigger legs and will swamp anyone on the wrong side. I’m not rooting for infection here, just observing the situation. Time will tell, but the Navy has thus far ceded control to the virus.

12/ Long term, this sort of event produces a strain of officer who won’t take shit off anyone when they know they’re right. #CaptainCrozier has shown us what real leadership looks like. More will be willing to follow in his footsteps.

13/ Bottom line: Many wish we served in a DoD where it isn’t plausible for a carrier skipper to get fired because they recognize taking care of people is the mission. It’s completely plausible, and the facts appear well aligned. Unless addressed now, this will live on for years.

Tagging in some admired thinkers in hopes they’ll tell me what I got wrong. @MikeBlack114 @jim_perkins1 @MollyCain @Eric_M_Murphy @KeraRolsen