Thoughts on #Labour leadership - the big angle is clearly a defeat for Corbyn and the left. But it doesn’t really matter that starmer is a ‘moderate’ - left-right divides have rarely been less important in politics.

The reason labour has been losing for 10 years is populism.

And recently, Johnson’s Brexit populism trumped corbyn’s left populism. But a pivot back to centre solves nothing in itself. Centre-left parties are being smashed across Europe and beyond. The problem for starmer is that he embodies everything populism is a revolt against

He’s very pro-EU, metropolitan, a north London MP. Maybe this is unfair, but he just looks and sounds establishment. And perceptions matter in politics.

Therefore, 3 months ago I’d have rated starmer a pretty terrible choice of leader. BUT (and this is a big but)

The current crisis changes things. Whatever else starmer May be, he’s a good lawyer and he’ll be far more competent at holding Johnson to account than Corbyn. Right now, that feels very important. And if the public turn against Johnson’s handling of the crisis and/or blame him

for the huge recession and unemployment which is going to be the next few years, then labour has a path back to power almost by default. Govts tend to lose office more than oppositions win it - this is a real possibility.

But also no doubt that starmer is not the ideal candidate to win back the labour heartlands. If the next few years go wrong, they could be lost for good.

In other words, the political map is volatile and no one has a clue what will happen next!

Also think the gender angle is important - it’s a disgrace that the uk’s main progressive party has still not had a female leader.

I think banning men from running is a terrible idea - assuming women can’t beat men competing as equals is v. regressive. But what else can they do?

It’s clear that the best and brightest MPs around starmer are women - dr allin-Khan who ran a great campaign, Angela Rayner (why didn’t she run for the leadership?!) and nandy (whatever my thoughts about her leadership campaign, she is impressive)

If they all lose next time

to someone like burgon, then labour probably is irredeemably sexist.

It will certainly be fascinating to watch what happens next!