Corona epidemic is hitting as well. What are effects of the announced one-month shutdown. My colleagues Heli Simola& @LSolanko investigate 1/
https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16994/bpb0620.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Looking at Russia’s GDP composition, they conclude (with some assumptions, of course) that ~23% of GDP would be shut down. If the shutdown would last for 3 months, mechanically calculated GDP drop would be 4.5%. 2/
https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16994/bpb0620.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

However, #Russia is not an island. It is actually very vulnerable to similar shutdowns in other countries. If Russia’s export partners enact shutdowns, Russia’s GDP drop should be multiplied by 1.3. (and are almost as vulnerable.) 3/
https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16994/bpb0620.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

On top of this, the price of oil has collapsed and capital outflows are up. Both of these factors will magnify negative effects of corona epidemic. (And are to large extent caused by it.) Difficult times ahead.
@BOFITresearch
https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16994/bpb0620.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
4/ ends