I can’t believe I’m doing this, but quite a few people have asked if I can narrow the field for the Virtual Grand National based on the trends, given that this afternoon’s race will be computer modelled and therefore (in theory) more predictable than the real thing. Thread >>>

If we start with weight, Tiger Roll would be the first ruled out, along with Bristol De Mai: only Many Clouds has carried over 11-6 to victory since Red Rum, also the last top weight to succeed. Tiger Roll may have won the real thing twice, but was beaten in Virtual GN last year.

In terms of ratings, only two winners of the National since 1987 have been rated higher than 153 and only one over 157. So in theory you can put a line through the top 13 horses in the handicap and certainly the top six, who all carry 11st 2lb plus.

Looking at age, both Burrows Saint and Tout Est Permis are too young at seven years old (no winners since 1940 have been younger than eight). Recent history favours 8 & 9yo, but traditionally 10 & 11yo have also done well. You can also discount Pleasant Company, as he’s too old.

In terms of preparation, these horses have had too few runs this season (less than three outings):

Tiger Roll
Beware The Bear
Talkischeap
Sub Lieutenant
Dounikos
Warriors Tale
Kimberlite Candy

And these horses have not run in the last 56 days (only One For Arthur has won with a longer lay-off since 1990):

Top Ville Ben
Beware The Bear
Peregrine Run
Jett
Total Recall
Burrows Saint
OK Corral
Lake View Lad
Potters Corner
Kimberlite Candy
Walk In The Mill

The following group of horses have no placed form this season over fences (only Auroras Encore has won since 1990 without being in first three that season):

Beware The Bear
Sub Lieutenant
Pleasant Company
Dounikos
Warriors Tale
Double Shuffle

These horses do not have enough experience (fewer than 10 runs over fences):

Burrows Saint
Talkischeap
OK Corral
Death Duty

While these have too many miles on the clock (more than 25 chase runs):

Bristol De Mai
Jett
Yala Enki
Sub Lieutenant
Valtor

Now stamina - these horses have not won over 3m 1f+:

Aso
Anibale Fly
Top Ville Ben
Peregrine Run
Alpha Des Obeaux
The Storyteller
Magic of Light
Ballyoptic
Tout Est Permis
Lake View Lad
Shattered Love
Death Duty
Ramses De Teillee
Valtor
Saint Xavier
Warriors Tale
Double Shuffle

Finally, these horses lack the quality required in a Grand National, having failed to win a Class 1 or 2 Chase with a minimum of 10 runners:

Jury Duty
Acapella Bourgeois
Death Duty
Saint Xavier
Double Shuffle

Considering trends for the Virtual National itself, the three winners to date had a few things in common: all had won last time out, they were weighted 10-13 or 11-0 and were ‘well in’ on the handicap, with their rating higher than the allotted weight. Odds of 16/1, 10/1 & 8/1.

Those horses due to have a rise in their official ratings next time out are:

Ballyoptic +6
Definitly Red +4
Kimberlite Candy +3
Bristol De Mai +2

Also worth noting that two of the Virtual GN winners had won the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham on last run, emphasis on stamina.

My own personal shortlist for this year’s race (the real one) included the following ante post bets:

Magic of Light
Ballyoptic
Burrows Saint
Potters Corner
Kimberlite Candy
Walk In The Mill

All of these have strictly been dismissed on the traditional trends.

But based on weight, rating, proven stamina and recent form I still think that shortlist holds up for today’s virtual version. The weight will surely tell for Tiger Roll and I expect the winner to come from the bottom half of the handicap.

Two class horses that were not rejected on the trends were Any Second Now & Definitly Red, both prominent in the betting. If there’s an emphasis on course form Walk In The Mill and Kimberlite Candy both come into the reckoning. For stamina there’s Burrows Saint & Potters Corner.

So that’s my attempt to unravel the race on trends alone. Tiger Roll may make a mockery of it all to win again, but worth remembering he was beaten in last year’s virtual version so I think that’s unlikely. I’d be focusing on the horses priced between 10/1 and 18/1. Good luck!