1. Here are some very conservative numbers about #Coronavirusmaroc

The infection rate among those who exhibit symptoms and tested is around 20%. I am going to assume that the actual infection rate will be stable round 5% (2MM infected people). https://twitter.com/Ministere_Sante/status/1246339632205377542

Further, let's assume that the lockdown & social distancing will work perfectly. Finally, let's assume that only 10% of those infected will get actually sick (200K people). Now, let's apply the government reported CFR of 6%. The result is 12K deaths.
#Coronavirusmaroc

The above numbers assume that @Ministere_Sante numbers reflect the reality on the ground. The truth is that nobody knows the number of infected people for sure. We can only go by the number of deaths (not the number of reported deaths but all deaths). #coronavirusmaroc

Once it is over, we need to count all deaths since the beginning until the end of pandemic. Normally, we know the proportion of deaths in a country over a certain period and it's stable in general. #coronavirusmaroc

Adult mortality rate in 2015 is 17.48% and it can only go down since then. If we find that the mortality rate jumps to 19% in 2020, there is no doubt that all incremental deaths are from #coronavirus. #coronavirusmaroc

All the numbers above are based on extremely conservative numbers. If any epidemiologist or any official in Morocco is willing to challenge my assumptions, please reply to this thread. #Coronavirusmaroc @Ministere_Sante @ChefGov_ma