Here is an update on #COVID19 in Australia. Today 5,556 (+198) detected cases, 699 (+51) recovered (not reliable), death 30(+2). Good news, detected cases curve is flattening, 5 days in a row of decrease daily cases (doubling time 9 days) & we follow Korea's path

Looking at state level, all flattening. However examination cases in NSW & VIC shows that O/S travelers cases is flattening but community cases are steadily increasing. This is more obvious if we look at % of total detected cases. Community cases described now in all states now

On the testing side, we have done over 280,000 tests in Australia (hit rate of 1.9%). Looking at the details, hit rate hasn't changed much in the last few days as we have pretty much exhausted o/s travelers niche & haven't focused on communities. I clearly see it at state level

Interestingly, in fact I found an inverse relationship between the number of test done in a day and the hit rate (r=-0.44, p=0.05) indicating we must extend testing to communities now

Last point on ICU hospitalization. It is stable at 1.5% of the detected cases in Australia. Looking at NSW (reliable figures), stable at 1.5% in the last 3 days and < 1% detected cases for mechanical ventilation. It seems all under control

In conclusion 1/ curve is flattening 2/ community cases are raising but not in exponential state yet 3/ We must extend our testing capability to communities 4/ #borderclosure & #SocialDistanacing works but not over yet. A second wave might start soon. will see in the coming days.