Coronavirus increasingly appears likely to be the worst natural disaster in decades.

I don't think it is yet appreciated how much it directly and indirectly attacks infrastructure, distinct from most disasters.

A courtesy suggestion: stop reading now if you're at an elevated level of stress about this issue and do not have a need to know more. I respect your decision either way.

The blips we're seeing in the supply chain aren't just because of hording/panic buying/supply chains being extended.

They're partially because supply chains are composed of people in small pockets of air.

We rely on infrastructure to work, pretty much of all of the time, and the fact of it working the same as yesterday is proof that it will continue working in the future.

It is difficult to prove the safety of any ship in the world right now. Or, say, any elevator.

Or, one level from supply chains: we have command and control structures. Most of those command and control structures have, for a variety of historical and risk management reasons, some levels where a bunch of people get around a table to talk about decisionmaking.

It is difficult to imagine a historical precedent for an event where "Let's get all the top minds and formal sources of authority in a room for 6 hours and hash out the response plan" is a worse idea than in the present circumstance.

The virus doesn't know it is doing this, of course. It has no volition. It has no model for the human mind or society. It just seeks cells and sometimes has the fortune to blow into ones it hasn't subverted yet.

But, by happenstance, our defaults align well with its spread.

And so one advantage in responding to the virus is having logistics and command-and-control networks which don't rely on geospatial proximity between decisionmakers or small pockets of shared air.

Another is being able to recognize that threat and pivot, very, very quickly.

Another form of logistics, that we have not always studied as logistics, is the healthcare system. I think many of us are learning an appreciation that it depends on an orderly flow of relatively unremarkable supplies.

Much of it is, unfortunately, also a small pocket of air.

Air *itself* is a logistical challenge, in the present moment. We assume infinite amounts are free most of the time and that the exceptions have already been mathed out by some expert deep in the figurative bowels of an architectural firm.

And now the HVAC details really matter.

That's it with the sobering thoughts.

The somewhat good news is that we're better equipped to quickly pivot infrastructure than we've ever been, thanks to changes in how it is constructed which happened mostly very recently in human terms.