Covid19 is probably more infectious than originally believed.

R0 could lie between 2.4 and 3.9 (!)
Key thing is to make sure that the health system does not become overloaded in April.
They see it playing out like this. Hammer and dance, literally.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

That's the English version.

Show it to any #FBPE smartarse who claims to know how to manage an epidemic.

While they're crocheting a EU beret for their cat, natch.
And you keep on like this until you have either a vaccine (Impfstoff) or an effective treatment.

Because ... for all the kiddies asking 'Why, mummy?' ... you don't want to cripple your health system.
No, for all the sardine / #FBPE people out there, here's a really handy tool:

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

You get to put *your* epidemiological model in and play around with the scenarios.
You can follow @BouvierStephen.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: