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So, everyone wants to know when this pandemic will be over. So let& #39;s look at a possible scenario for discussion. So, for this scenario, after 2 months, there are no new cases in Canada but only 10% of the population have had the disease and either recovered or succumbed to it.
There is no herd immunity and most people are still susceptible to catching the virus with a variety of outcomes. The question now is how well are other countries doing. Likely the developed world will be managing the outbreak but may or may not have been totally successful.
Clearly, we don& #39;t want anyone coming from a country where there are still actively transmitting people - so travel to and from those countries will need to be locked down - or some form of rapid virus detection be available at all points of entry.
This will continue to cause major disruptions in global trade. and pleasure travel. But what about developing countries where the medical system, culture and demographics make it difficult to limit virus transmission?
Here, there will be an even more stringent isolation and the need for assistance from the world to help minimise the spread of the virus. Here the need for a vaccine will be the highest priority as control of the spread will be difficult without one. This will take months/years.
No-one is going to be really safe in any country unless a vaccine can be developed so that herd immunity levels can be reached. We know that vaccine development is in progress but may take over a year to discover and test, let alone manufacture in the quantities necessary.
Then we face the logistical problems of cost and actual immunisation of the majority of the world including countries where there is little ability to pay - yet a possible virus reservoir from which reinfections around the world could occur.
Then we have to face the issue of anti-vaxxers- aagh!
So my overall conclusion is that this pandemic will take months at least to be under control and the world will NOT likely return to a pre-pandemic situation for years and it may possibly be a different world even then.
So my overall conclusion is that this pandemic will take months at least to be under control and the world will NOT likely return to a pre-pandemic situation for years and it may possibly be a different world even then.
What are other people& #39;s thoughts?
